NCAA basketball on Wednesday night and we will see the California Golden Bears travel to the Moody Coliseum in Abilene, Texas to take on the SMU Mustangs in the quarterfinals of the NIT Tournament. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2 . Vegas odds have the Mustangs listed as 8 point favorites, while the total sits at 136.5.
Stat Pack: The California Golden Bears reached this quarterfinal by winning their opener, 77-64, over Utah Valley and then they cruised to a 75-64 win over Arkansas. The Golden Bears now stand at 21-13 overall this year, including a 5-6 mark on the road. The Bears average a modest 72.6 ppg (120th) on 45.6% shooting overall (102nd), 34.6% from long range (167th) and 68.3% from the FT line (232nd). The team is led by Justin Cobbs, who averages 15.5 ppg. David Kravish (11.4 ppg) and Tyrone Wallace (11.4 ppg) also average in double figures for the Bears. Solomon (11.0 ppg) does as well and also leads the team in rebounding at 10.2 rpg, but he is out for this game. Defensively the Bears are a decent team, as they come in allowing just 69.2 ppg on 41.5% shooting, but they don't defend the arc very well, allowing teams to hit 35.3% from long range, which is 245th in the nation.
As for the SMU Mustangs, they took care of UC Irvine (68-54) in their first round game and then beat LSU buy an 80-67 count to reach this quarterfinal game. The Mustangs now stand at 24-9 on the year overall and 15-1 at home. The SMU Mustangs are a team that is built on a stifling defense, as they come in ranked 23st in the nation in points allowed (62.2 ppg), 4th in defensive FG% (37.9%) and 55th in 3 point defense (31.9%). At home this year they have allowed just 59.3 ppg on 35.7% shooting. Now this team isn’t all about defense, as they average 71.5 ppg (169th) overall and 75.5 ppg at home. This is a very good shooting team as they connect on 48.5% of their shots overall (18th) and 38.3% from long range (42nd). The offense is led by Nic Moore, who averages 13.6 ppg, while Markus Kennedy leads the team in rebounding (6.9 rpg) and is the only other Mustang that averages in double figures (12.0 ppg).
Pick: I will be going with the Mustangs in this one. California just beat an Arkansas that was in a bad spot as they had not been to the state of California in forever, plus they had an 11 pm west coast start time. Also did I mention that Arkansas was a bad road team this year? Just too much going again Arkansas in that game. Now Cal takes to the road with some things going again them. First of all they are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, while their last 4 true road losses have all been by at least 8 points. Cal is 6-0 in all games away from home this year and those 9 losses have been by an average of 13 ppg. I say that only cause im confident they will lose outright here as the Mustangs are 15-1 SU at home, while outscoring foes by a 16.3 ppg count. The Mustangs play a stifling defense, especially at home where they have allowed just 59.3 ppg on 35.7% shooting. In contrast, the Bears have allowed 74.6 ppg on 45.6% shooting in true road games this year. Big edge there for the Mustangs. Some questioned the motivation factor of the Mustangs coming into this tournament, but after a pair of double digit wins it is clear that this team wants to win the NIT Tournament and a motivated Mustang squad on this floor is very dangerous, especially vs a Cal team that struggles on the road and will be without their best player down low (Richard Solomon). I see the Mustangs winning by 12+ points here.
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