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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NCAA Basketball Picks New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs

College basketball on Saturday night and we will see the New Mexico Lobos travel to San Diego, California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs. The game has a start time of 10:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBSSN. Vegas odds have San Diego State listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 130.5.

Stat Pack: The New Mexico Lobos come in at 24-5 overall and 15-2 in the MWC. The offense averages 75.4 ppg (65th), on 45.9% shooting (87th). They are Cameron Bairstow (20.3 ppg) and Kendall Williams (16.7 ppg) lead the offense, while Alex Kirk leads the team in blocks (79) and also scores 13.7 ppg, which is 3rd on the team. Kirk also leads in rebounding 98.6 rpg). On defense the Lobos rank 89th in points allowed (66.8 ppg) and 11th in defensive FG% (38.9%), but they don't defend the arc very well, allowing teams to hit 35.1% of their log rang shots, which is 226th in the nation.

For the Aztecs they are 26-3 overall, 15-2 in the MWC and 14-1 at home this year. Offensively the Aztecs are not great, ranking 156th in scoring (72 ppg) and 185th in shooting (44.3%). They are 93rd in 3pt shooting (36.4%) and 3pt defense is a weakness of the Lobos. The Aztecs are led by Zavier Thames (16.7 ppg) and Winston Sheppard (12.7 ppg), while leading the team in rebounding is Josh Davis at 9.9 rpg. Skylar Spencer s a defensive force inside with 77 blocks on the year. The Aztecs are fueled by their defense that ranks 2nd in scoring (57.5 ppg) 8th in defensive FG% (38.3%) and 9th in 3pt defense (29.2%).

Pick: The first meeting put up just 102 points and this one may stay under 120 points as well. In that first meeting, the Aztecs were embarrassed by a 58-44 count and you can bet that they will bring the defensive intensity in this one. The Aztecs have also billed this game as one of their biggest in school history and that has me thinking they will take less chances on offense and use their defense more to win this one. It's a good thing they have a good defense that has allowed just 58.7 ppg on 39.7% shooting overall and just 54.2 ppg on 35.6% shooting at home. On offense the Aztecs are a patient team and they score just 69.2 ppg on 41.8% shooting on their home floor and Im just not sure they will come close to that vs a New Mexico team that has allowed just 53.6 ppg in their last 5 games. New Mexico has also allowed just 66.4 ppg on 38% shooting on the road this year. The last 5 in this series have all gone under the total, with just 109.6 ppg being scored and all 5 games have been big just like this one. I look for this game to stay under 120 points.    

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