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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NCAA Basketball Picks Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes

ACC basketball on Wednesday night and we will see the Duke Blue Devils travel south to take on the Miami Hurricanes. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Vegas odds have the Blue Devils listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 128.5.

Analysis: The Duke Blue Devils come into this game at 13-4 overall and 3-2 within the ACC. Duke comes in on a two game rll as they won a hard fought 69-65 game vs Virginia and then followed that up with a 35 point destruction of NC State. Both those games were at home and now Duke is on the road, where they are 0-2 in true road games this year. The Blue Devils come in ranked 19th in the nation in scoring (82.6 ppg), 29th in in shooting (48.4%) and 10th in 3-pt shooting (41.4%). This dangerous offensive team is led by freshman Jabari Parker and his 19.1 ppg, plus he also leads the team with 7.3 rpg. Rodney Hood is the 2nd leading scorer at 17.9 ppg and is the leading shooter on the team, hitting 51.7% of his shots. Defensively, Duke has had a couple of issues, ranking 123rd in points allowed (68.2 ppg) and 245th in defensive FG% (44.7%).

The Miami Hurricanes come in at 10-7 overall, but just 2-3 within the ACC. Miami has lost both of their ACC home games this year to Virginia Tech and Florida State. Offense is not a strength of this team as they come in ranked 335th in the nation in scoring at just 62.4 ppg. They also shoot just 42.2% from the field and 31.9% from long range. It's no surprise then that this team has just one player averaging in double figures, as Rion Brown comes in putting up 14.1 ppg. Kirk Donnavan and Darrius Adams are just outside the DD mark, averaging 9.9 and 9.8 ppg respectively. Defense is where this team makes their stand as they are 9th in scoring defense, allowing just 58.5 ppg and 26th in in defensive FG%, allowing just 39.1% shooting.       

Pick: The OVER is 12-1 in this series, but that was then an this is now, as I expect this to be a low scoring game. Miami has really slowed the pace and have played great defense once ACC play has begun. In their 5 ACC games this year, the Canes have averaged just 55.2 ppg, while allowing just 54.4 ppg. That's an average of just 109.6 ppg in their ACC games and one of those games (vs Va Tech) actually went to OT, so in regulation their games have averaged just 107.8 ppg. A far cry from 129. Miami's home games have put up 131 ppg this year, but just 114 ppg (Reg) in their two ACC home games. Now I know that Duke is a good offensive team, but they have scored just 68 ppg on 37.6% shooting in their 2 ACC road games this year. The Duke defense has been soft at times this year and they have allowed 75 ppg on 50% shooting in their ACC road games, but Miami is a very slow team that will not put up many points on anyone and Duke has played better defense of late, allowing just 62.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Duke likes uptempo, but Miami has slowed down just about everyone they have faced and I see them doing it here, especially since this is a huge games for them and on national TV. Very low 120's at best here.    

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