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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NCAA Basketball Free Picks Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs

NCAA basketball on Tuesday night and we will see the Utah State Aggies travel to San Diego, California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs. The game has a start time of 11:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Vegas odds have the Aztecs listed as 10 point favorites, while the total sits at 129.

Analysis:  Utah State comes in with a 15-10 mark overall, but they are just 5-8 within the MWC, which includes a 74-69 OT loss at home to San Diego State back in January. The Aggies average a modest 71.4 ppg, but they shoot the ball very well, hitting 46.6% of their shots from the floor, to rank 67th in the nation, while also ranking 3rd in the nation in 3 pt shooting (41.4%). Jared Shaw leads the Aggies in scoring (14.7 ppg) and rebounding (8.5 rpg), while Spencer Butterfield in second on the team in scoring (15.5 ppg), b=while being their best threat from long range, hitting 46.6% of his threes. Defesively the Aggies are solid, allowing just 66.9 ppg on 42.4% shooting. A win here would be the 600th career coaching victory for Utah State's Stew Morrill.

The San Diego State Aztecs come in ranked 6th in the nation with a 22-2 record overall and a 11-1 mark in the MCW. The Aztecs are also a solid 12-1 at home, with their lone loss here coming to Arizona in the second game of the year. San Diego State is led by their awesome defense that has allowed just 57 ppg on the year, which ranks 3rd in the nation. They also rank 4th in defensive FG% (37.7%) and 7th in 3pt defense (28.1%). This team plays great team defense for sure. Offensively the Aztecs are mediocre at best, averaging just 72.5 ppg (175th) on 43.9% shooting (207th). The Aztecs are led by Xavier Thames, which scores 17.6 ppg, while Josh Davis leads the team in rebounding at 10.8 rpg. San Diego State is unbeaten in its last 112 games when leading with five minutes to play.  

Pick: Going with the Under in this one. The Under is 16-4 in Aztec games this year and the Under 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Two big reasons for that are that they slow the pace and play excellent defense. The Aztecs are 3rd in the nation in points allowed (57 ppg) and 4th in FG% defense (37.7%), while at home they have been even better, allowing just 54.2 ppg on 35.6% shooting. Tough to get much going on offense on the Aztecs home floor, especially for a Utah State squad that averages just 64.8 ppg on 42.3% shooting on the road this year. The Aztecs are not a very good offensive team at home, as they score just 68.1 ppg on a mere 40.2% shooting on their home floor this year. Utah State hasn't played bad defense on the road this year allowing just 68.2 ppg away from home and they should be able to keep SDSU in the mid 60's at best. I look for a 65-55 type of final here.  


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