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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies: Game Analysis, Odds, Free Pick

Today on the NBA, we will see the Philadelphia 76ers travel to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in an exciting contest. The game is scheduled for an 8:00 pm start time and it will be televised live on CSN (Philadelphia) and SPSO (Memphis). Currently the odds for the game have the Grizzlies favored by 9 points, while the totals line is set at 183,5 points. Opening lines had the Grizzlies favored by 10 points, while the totals line was set at 184 points.

Game Analysis: Memphis is coming from a loss in Houston, where they wanted to run with the Rockets and they got crushed. The same had happened with their game at Denver, in another fast paced game. Both the Rockets and the Grizzlies like to play at a fast pace (#1 and #3 on pace factor respectively), but Philadelphia is just #28 in that rank, so tonight's game will see the Grizzlies getting back to their slow paced games. After getting crushed at Houston, I expect a good mindset for the Grizzlies defense tonight. 

"I thought we hung our hats on defense," Tony Allen said. "That's how we win games. I'm sure we'll look at film and fix it."

Memphis is a top 3 perimeter defensive team and that's tough for Philadelphia, who depends from their perimeter shooting and they are even without Jason Richardson once again. With Evan Turner being defended by Tony Allen and Jrue Holiday by Mike Conley, the Sixers offense is definitely in trouble for tonight. 

The Sixers are a team that have a very low number of turnovers and in order to avoid turning the ball over, they play at a very slow pace. That's good against a Grizzlies defense that wants to create turnovers. Obviously, Philadelphia's offense is based on pick and roll ball handler plays with Jrue Holiday or Evan Turner having the ball on their hands. The Sixers shoot a lot from 16-23 feet, but the Grizzlies defense is #5 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #6 on 16-23 feet defense with just 34.9% FG allowed. Therefore, Philadelphia's offense will definitely struggle a lot tonight.

On the other hand, Philadelphia may not have good enough frontcourt players to stop the Grizzlies frontcourt, but Doug Collins' system is solid. Philadelphia is #10 on defensive rebounding and currently improving, while they are #3 in points in the paint allowed per game with 38.4 ppg. The Sixers close really well the paint, but they struggle in closing the perimeter, where they are just #25 on 3pts defense with 37.2% 3pts allowed. The good part for the Sixers is that Memphis is just #29 on 3pts attempts per game with 14.7 and besides that, they are just shooting 33.3% 3pts on their last 10 games! Philadelphia had three games against the Lakers, Dallas and Houston where they struggled on defense, but they got pounded on free throws and 3pts shots in those games, something that won't happen tonight against a Grizzlies team that don't want to shoot from the outside. Jrue Holiday also didn't play those games and he is the team's best perimeter defender. 

I expect tonight's game will be a really slow contest, with Philadelphia getting shutdown on offense, while the Grizzlies should also struggle as they need their frontcourt to play well offensively and the Sixers close well the paint. I see this game being a very low scoring contest, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.

Free Pick: Take the Under 183,5 in here (Single Dime Play)

For more great content on the NBA check my NBA Daily Thread and follow me @gomescapper via twitter. For more information about today's NBA Card, check also my Pregame Pros Page!

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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