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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NBA Tuesday Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers: Game Analysis, Odds, Free Pick

Today on the NBA, we will see the Toronto Raptors travel to take on the Philadelphia 76ers in an exciting contest. The game is scheduled for an 7:00 pm start time and it will be televised live on TSN (Toronto) and CSN (Philadelphia). Currently the odds for the game have the Sixers favored by 5,5 points, while the totals line is set at 182,5 points. Opening lines had the Sixers favored by 5,5 points, while the totals line was set at 182 points.

Game Analysis: This is a game between two teams that simply don't commit turnovers, as Toronto is #2 in the league on turnover rate with 13.5% and Philadelphia is #4 with 14.3%! This puts Philadelphia's offense on a tough position for tonight, as they will struggle in getting opportunities to score on transition plays, where they are a decent team. The Sixers are #5 in the league in forcing turnovers (17.3%), while they are also #12 on fast break points per game and #7 on transition efficiency with 1.22 PPP! On the other hand, Toronto is very prone to foul their opponents and they are even last in the league in opponent FT rate with 26.7%, however Philadelphia's offense isn't built to be aggressive and to go to the FT line. They weren't last season and they aren't this season, as they are just #27 in the league in FT rate with 17.2%! So, this will bring some relief to the Raptors defense, who won't see their opponents have a huge number of free throws today. The Raptors have been struggling in defending near the basket, an area where they are a top defensive team last season. However, Philadelphia won't be able to take advantage of that tonight, as they are just #27 on volume of plays at the rim with just 28% of their shots being at the rim! Therefore, the Sixers won't be able to take advantage of the Raptors' defensive problems tonight, as they aren't aggressive to get free throws or pound their opponents down low with their big men.

On their last game against Cleveland, Philadelphia's frontcourt struggled once again on offense and the fact that they got outrebounded with a 9-18 edge on offensive rebounds didn't help at all. Philadelphia grabbed just 43.5% of the rebounds, shot just 14-21 FG at the rim, while Thaddeus Young shot 1-2 FG, Spencer Hawes 2-4 FG, Lavoy Allen 0-0 FG and Kwame Brown 0-0 FG! The Sixers big men shot a combined of 3-6 FG against the worst interior defense in the league! This shows how non-existent their interior game is.

Toronto will have some edge on the frontcourt if Andrea Bargnani is decent. He is coming from a decent game against the undersized team of Orlando and tonight against the Sixers, he should be able to produce some offense as well. On the first game of this series, Bargnani had 9-19 FG, 23 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Amir Johnson is also in good form and Toronto should be able to create more easy points near the basket than Philadelphia.

During the first game of the series, Philadelphia won at Toronto by outscoring them 32-7 during the second quarter. Philadelphia shot 10-23 FG from 16-23 feet, while Toronto shot just 3-17 FG from the same area! This was a huge gap that was an once in a lifetime thing with Nick Young and Spencer Hawes being red hot on the outside. I expect a much closer game tonight, with both teams being perimeter oriented, but with Toronto having more chances of scoring down low than the Sixers. I believe this will be a complete ballgame and therefore, I'll be taking the Raptors in here.

Free Pick: Take the Toronto +5.5 in here (Single Dime Play)

For more great content on the NBA check my NBA Daily Thread and follow me @gomescapper via twitter. For more information about today's NBA Card, check also my Pregame Pros Page!

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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