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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NBA Saturday Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards: Game Analysis, Odds, Free Pick

Today on the NBA, we will see the Utah Jazz travel to take on the Washington Wizards in an exciting contest. The game is scheduled for an 7:00 pm start time and it will be televised live on ROOT Sports (Utah) and CSN HD (Washington DC). Currently the odds for the game have the Jazz favored by 3 points, while the totals line is set at 189,5 points. Opening lines had the Jazz favored by 3 points, while the totals line was set at 189 points.

Game Analysis: Utah is coming from another road loss yesterday, this time in Philadelphia, where their poor bad perimeter defense was once again exposed: Jrue Holiday 10-21 FG, Jason Richardson 7-12 FG, Evan Turner 5-11 FG and Thaddeus Young 3-5 FG! Philadelphia had a super game with 10-18 3pts! They were also efficient on pick and roll ball handler plays with 9-17 FG and shot 7-11 FG on spot up plays. On the other side, the Jazz struggled to have a high volume of shots on the inside, something normal considering how Philadelphia defends. Utah didn't have an edge on boards and had a subpar game on post up plays with 5-12 FG!

The Wizards are coming from a loss in Charlotte, where they just couldn't respond to the ball pressure of the Bobcats. They attempted loads of 3pts shots, but without making them. Then, at Dallas, they were getting blown out, until they started making 3pts shots, while Kevin Seraphin also dominated the Mavs frontcourt. Washington is the team that tries less shots at the rim of the whole season, so the size of the Jazz frontcourt on defense is irrelevant. What matters on this game is how Utah defends on the perimeter (from 16-23 feet and 3pts) and how they defend pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and offscreens. The truth is that the Jazz is on the bottom 10 in defending 16-23 feet by allowing 39%, while they are in the bottom 5 in the league in defending 3pts shots! Utah is also just #22 (0.80 PPP) in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, #29 (1.14 PPP) in defending spot up plays and #27 (1.08 PPP) in defending off screen plays, so they are the "perfect" defense for Washington to have a great offensive game tonight!

On the other hand, Utah will have an edge on offensive rebounds tonight against an inexperienced Wizards froncourt, where only Trevor Ariza brings some NBA experience to the team. Washington is allowing 65% FG at the rim and 49% FG from 3-9 feet, so I believe Utah will have a clear frontcourt edge on offense tonight. With Utah not being able to defend Washington from the perimeter and with the Wizards not being able to stop Utah's powerful frontcourt on offense, I expect this contest to quickly turn into a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Free Pick: Take the Over 189,5 in here (Single Dime Play)

For more great content on the NBA check my NBA Daily Thread and follow me @gomescapper via twitter. For more information about today's NBA Card, check also my Pregame Pros Page!

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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