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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NBA Saturday Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Betting Odds, Free Pick

Saturday NBA and we will see the Miami Heat travel to the Palace of Auburn Hills to take on the Detroit PistonsFree Pick to follow. The game has a start time of 7:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised locally. Current Vegas betting odds have the Heat listed as 2 point favorites, while the total is set at 192.5. 

Analysis: The Miami Heat are not really playing good ball at the moment as they come in having won just 2 of their last 7 games. For the year the Heat are now 34-41 overall, including 16-22 on the road and if the playoffs started today they would have the number 7 seed in the East. Miami has gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The Heat have not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 28th in scoring (94.7 ppg), 10th in shooting, 20th in 3 point shooting and 23rd in FT shooting. Defensively the Heat have been very good this year, ranking 3rd in points allowed (96.8 ppg), 22nd in defensive FG% and 20th in 3 point defense. 

The Detroit Pistons will not be in the playoffs this year and they had been playing well, but now they come in losers of 3 of their last 4 games, including BB road losses to Charlotte and Chicago. Overall the Piston are 29-47, which includes a 16-21 mark at home. The Pistons have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, but just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Pistons have not been a great offensive team this year, ranking 20th in scoring (98.0 ppg), 27th in shooting, 24trh in 3 point shooting and 29th in FT shooting. Defensively the Pistons have been average this year, ranking 15th in points allowed (99.5 ppg), 24th in defensive FG% and 19th in 3 point defense. 

Pick: I will go with the Under here. The Heat have been struggling mightily on offense of late as they have averaged 88.6 ppg on their last 7 games overall and just 86 ppg in their last 5 games on the road. Defensively the Heat have been solid all year as they have allowed just 96.8 ppg overall and just 96.1 ppg on the road. Detroit comes in struggling on offense as they have averaged just 80 ppg in their last 2 games. The Under is 24-9 in Miami's last 33 games after allowing 100 or more points, while the Under is 6-1 in Detroit's last 7 games when playing with no rest. I expect this one to stay in the 180s.    

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