Monday night NBA and we will see the Indiana Pacers travel to American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida to take on the Miami Heat in game 4 of their best-of seven series. The game has a start time of 8:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Vegas odds have the Heat listed as 6.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 183.5.
Analysis: The Indiana Pacers came into the playoffs as the number 1 seed and fought all year to grab homecourt advantage, but after losing game 2 they have now lost their homecourt advantage and now find themselves in a 2 games to 1 hole. The Pacers are a mediocre 26-22 on the road this year and the home team has now won 10 of the last 11 SU in this series. The Pacers have struggled to score this year and it has followed them to the playoffs, where they are averaging just 91.6 ppg on 44.7% shooting. In the playoffs Paul George has led the team in scoring at 21.3 ppg, while also leading them in rebounding at 7.8 rpg. David West (14.5 ppg), Lance Stephenson (14.2 ppg) and George Hill (12.3 ppg) have also averaged in double figures for the Pacers. The Pacers have hung their hat on the defensive end of the floor this year and it has been no different in the playoffs, as they have allowed just 90.6 ppg on 42.4% shooting in the post-season so far.
The Miami Heat lost game 1 of this series, by 11 points, but they have since bounced back to win the last 2 games to take a 2-1 series lead. The home team is now 10-1 SU the last 11 meetings. The Heat have averaged 98.2 ppg on 49.6% shooting in the post-season so far and are led by Lebron James, who is averaging 28.6 ppg so far, while also leading the team in rebounding at 7.2 rpg and assists (5.0). Dwayne Wade (19.5 ppg) and Chris Bosh (13.2 ppg) have also averaged in double figures for the Heat so far. Defensively Miami was a solid bunch this year, allowing just 96.9 ppg (5th) on 45.7% shooting (16th) overall and in the playoffs they have been even better, allowing just 92.3 ppg on 45.8% shooting.
Pick: Going to go with the Under here. Game 3 had no right to go over as it was on pace for somewhere in the 170's for most of the game, but a 3 ball with 10 seconds left in the game put the game over the total. The Pacers lost game 3 cause they allowed the Heat to speed the game up in the second half, but I don't expect that here. The Pacers need to slow it down if they hope to win. The Heat have allowed just 92.3 ppg in the playoffs overall, while Indiana comes in allowing just 90.1 ppg in the playoffs overall. The last 10 in this series has averaged just 178.7 ppg, while the last 5 played here between these teams have averaged just 181.2 ppg. Both defenses will show up big time here and the offenses will keep the pace slow. This game should be played in the 170's at best.
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