NBA Playoff Betting Breakdown: Celtics, Knicks, Cavs, Thunder, Warriors and More

The 2025 NBA Playoffs have delivered high drama, shocking turnarounds, and elite-level breakdowns. In this detailed playoff preview and betting strategy article, podcast hosts Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers dissect every angle of key matchups across Friday and Saturday’s games. From tactical collapses to heroic performances, this article recaps it all—powered exclusively by transcript insights.

 Celtics vs Knicks: Clutch vs Collapse

Boston’s Self-Destruction in the Clutch

The Celtics dominated the early quarters of both Games 1 and 2, yet suffered brutal fourth-quarter collapses—missing 14 consecutive shots in Game 2 alone. Their over-reliance on semi-open threes and inflexible strategy was criticized heavily by Mackenzie. Despite having elite talent like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, their collective indecision under pressure leads to what he calls “historic brain farts.”

New York’s Fourth Quarter Brilliance

The Knicks, meanwhile, have maintained a +51.2 net rating in 4th quarters across the two games. Defensive prowess, especially from Mikal Bridges, has sealed wins. Munaf praised their resilience and role-player contributions, particularly under the lights of MSG, emphasizing that New York still hasn’t played their best offensive game—an ominous sign for Boston.

Cavs vs Pacers: Missing Stars and Rising Systems

Cleveland’s Injury Woes

The Cavs are limping into Game 3, having missed Mobley, Garland, and Hunter in Game 2. The result? Their second and ninth worst shooting performances of the entire 88-game season. Mackenzie notes that even with Garland potentially returning, his rhythm and movement will likely be compromised due to a sprained toe.

Indiana’s Fast-Paced Execution

Unlike the grind-it-out Celtics-Knicks series, Indiana has leaned into their speed and offensive style. Led by Tyrese Haliburton, they’ve executed remarkable comebacks—twice erasing 8-point deficits with under a minute left. The Pacers boast a top-4 fourth-quarter net rating in the playoffs and are 9-2 straight up at home in the postseason since 2023.

 Thunder vs Nuggets: Rising Stars vs Champions

Thunder’s Statement Game

OKC’s 149-point explosion in Game 2 stunned Denver. Despite the Nuggets shooting 41% from three, they were blown out. The Thunder’s youth isn’t a liability—it’s a superpower. Mackenzie credits Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lou Dort, and Chet Holmgren for applying full-court pressure on Jokic.

Denver’s Heavy Dependence on Jokic

Jokic has been excellent (40 pts in Game 1), but asked to do too much—both offensively and defensively. Mack’s best angle here? Game 3 under 233.5 points, citing a 61% historical trend that Game 3s after two overs lean heavily under.

 Warriors vs Timberwolves: Steph-less but Not Hopeless

Steph Curry’s Value

Steph’s absence is a 6-point market swing. The line jumped from -6.5 to -10.5 between Games 1 and 2. Yet optimism surrounds Golden State, especially if Curry returns by Game 4. Munaf and Mack agree: +160 to win the series offers real value, assuming Curry’s early return.

Jimmy Butler & Depth Performances

Butler has averaged 40+ minutes in five straight playoff games and was two assists shy of a triple-double in Game 1. His leadership, combined with performances from Buddy Hield and Draymond Green, give Golden State playoff grit—something Minnesota is still developing.

 Betting Picks and Trends

Best Bets

• Celtics -5 at Knicks (Game 3): Based on a 16–6 ATS record off a loss and 11–2 on the road.

• Knicks Team Total Under 99.5: Slow pace + elite Boston defense = high value.

• Pacers +3 vs Cavs: Based on home court stats (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS).

• Thunder/Nuggets Under 233.5: Overreaction to OKC's big Game 2 output.

Player Prop Angles

• Jokic Over Points: Expected high usage in closer Game 3.

• Jimmy Butler Triple Double: Nearly hit it in Game 1, great value prop.

• Steph Curry Futures: If he returns Game 4, look to fire at plus-money series odds.

 Strategic Trends to Watch

• Celtics are 65% ATS off a loss since 2022.

• Early start games (before 4PM ET) lean under the total.

• Road teams in the first 7 playoff games this week: 6-1 ATS/SU.

• Celtics on the road since 2021 playoffs: 22–9 SU, 19–12 ATS.

Final Word

This weekend’s NBA playoff slate is a bettor’s playground. With rich statistical trends, injury implications, and matchup nuances, bettors can find sharp angles—especially on team totals, Game 3 adjustments, and player props. Whether it’s Boston’s redemption arc or Golden State’s resilience, these playoffs are a masterclass in momentum, mindset, and mispricing.