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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NBA Friday Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers: Game Analysis, Odds, Free Pick

Today on the NBA, we will see the Dallas Mavericks travel to take on the Indiana Pacers in an exciting contest. The game is scheduled for an 7:00 pm start time and it will be televised live on FSSW (Dallas) and FSIHD (Indiana). Currently the odds for the game have the Pacers favored by 2 points, while the totals line is set at 187,5 points. Opening lines had the Pacers favored by 3 points, while the totals line was set at 186 points.

Game Analysis: Indiana has been having a rough start of the season and I've been fading them a lot or taking the Under in games involving them due to their very poor offense. With so many poor results and performances, the linemakers had to adjust and made the Pacers a marginal favorite for this contest. But the truth is that Dallas is a terrific matchup for Indiana in both ends of the floor. The Pacers have been committing a lot of turnovers and they don't have a good ball movement that allows them to have quality shots from the outside, an area where they have been heavily struggling. Indiana has only been playing well on offense on transition plays and in scoring second chance points, as they are a great offensive rebounding team, while being also very effective on post up plays with David West and Roy Hibbert. The problem is that Hibbert hasn't been able to get the ball due to their poor ball movement. 

This fits well on Dallas' defense, who heavily struggles on the areas where Indiana's offense has been playing well. Dallas doesn't put pressure on the ball handler, so they don't force turnovers (#26 with just 14.2% on opponent turnovers per possession), while they have been struggling on rebounds due to the lack of athleticism from their frontcourt by being just #27 in defensive rebound rate with 69.2%! The Mavericks are also one of the worst teams in defending post up plays by allowing a whooping 1.06 PPP! They couldn't stop Nikola Pekovic (20 points in 28 minutes) until he sprained his ankle and even with Chris Kaman and Elton Brand on their last game, they couldn't stop Kevin Seraphin, who had 14 points on a 7-7 FG shooting night. So, this is a great opportunity for the Pacers to have a rare decent offensive game tonight!

On the other hand, Dallas' offense has been very inconsistent, as their strengths are on the backcourt with Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo, who are red hot right now. So, it isn't a surprise that the Mavs offense is #4 on the league in spot up offense with 1.08 PPP and #10 in pick and roll plays due to this good dynamic. Dallas has been playing on a fast pace to take advantage of their quick guards, but the problem is that Indiana has been playing great defense this season! They are #4 on defensive rating, with their good frontcourt not needing help from the backcourt players, something that allows them to be a great perimeter defensive team as well, including being #1 in spot up defense by allowing just 0.71 PPP and #8 on transition defense! George Hill and Paul Goerge will be a tough matchup for Dallas' backcourt, while with the natural edge that Indiana's frontcourt will have over Dallas should allow the Pacers to have a comfortable win tonight. I'm taking Indiana in here.

Free Pick: Take the Indiana (-2) in here (Single Dime Play)

For more great content on the NBA check my NBA Daily Thread and follow me @gomescapper via twitter. For more information about today's NBA Card, check also my Pregame Pros Page!

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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