The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs are set to meet in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night. The game will be played at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas and has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern), while being televised on ABC. Vegas odds have the Spurs listed as 5.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 196.
Analysis: The Miami Heat looked like they might be able to steal game 1 of this series, but then cramps hit Lebron James and the Spurs finished the game on a 16-3 run to win game 1 by 15. Since then it has been mostly all spurs as they have won the next game to take a commanding 3-1 series. Miami looks to stave off elimination tonight. The Heat have averaged 97.8 in the post-season so far, but vs the Spurs they have been able to manage just 92.8 ppg. The post-season scoring is led by Lebron James, who is averaging 27.2 ppg so far, while also leading the team in rebounding at 6.9 rpg and assists (4.7). Dwayne Wade (18.2 ppg) and Chris Bosh (15.0 ppg) have also averaged in double figures for the Heat so far. Defensively the Heat have been very solid in the playoffs, allowing just 95.1 ppg overall, but vs the Spurs they have allowed 106 ppg.
The Teams split the two games in San Antonio, but the then went into Miami to take both games in blowout fashion. San Antonio now has a commanding 3-1 series and look to close it out on their home floor, where they are 42-11 on the year and have won 8 of their last 9 on this floor by at least 15 points. The Spurs have averaged 106.5 ppg on 49.2% shooting in the playoffs thus far and leading the way has been Tony Parker, who is averaging 17.5 ppg, while Tim Duncan is 2nd at 16.4 ppg. Manu Ginobili (14.1 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (13.9 ppg) round out the double digit scorers for the team in the post-season. Defensively the Spurs have been solid in the playoffs, as they come in allowing just 97.5 ppg on 44.7% shooting.
Pick: Going with the Over here. Typically the deeper into a series the more you would look to the Under, but this is now do or die for the Heat you you can expect them to do all they can to extend this series and that means more offense. The Have have shown that they can't slow down the Spurs, so their only course of action here will be to try an outscore them. The Spurs have put up 109 points or more in their last 11 home games and they should hit at least 105 in this one. I don't expect a full blowout here, so a 7-10 point game late should also lead to FTs, especially if the Heat are the ones down, cause their is no tomorrow for them should they lose this game. I do expect at least 200 points to be scored in this one. 105-99 San Antonio sounds about right.
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