The Miami Heat rebounded from their choke job in game #2 of the NBA Finals after being up 15 points in Dallas as underdogs winning 88-86 behind a monster game by Dwyane Wade (29 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists). The Dallas Mavericks are listed as three-point favorites tonight according to the NBA betting odds set by oddsmakers. At last check, 59% of the betting public according to SportsbookSpy have their money on the Miami Heat and 58% were betting on the over. History is on the side of the Miami Heat to win the series as teams up 2-1 in the NBA Finals are 45-7 (87%) to go on on and win The Larry O'Brien NBA Championship Trophy. On the flip side a team following the same format as the Heat (win at home, lose at home, win on the road) are 12-0 to win the best-of-seven-series but are only 1-11 in game #4.
NBA Finals Game #4 Start Time:
When: Tuesday June 7th at 9:00pm EST
Where: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)
TV: ABC
Injury Updates: Dallas Mavericks C Brendan Haywood upgraded to probable / Miami Heat F Chris Bosh is probable due to an eye injury.
Current Odds: Dallas Mavericks -3.0/ Miami Heat +3.0 Over 186.5/ Under 186.5 (click for updated NBA betting odds)
Current Series Price: Miami Heat -380/ Dallas Mavericks +300
Officials: Monty McCutchen, Marc Davis & Greg Willard
NBA Free Pick (courtesy of Stephen Nover): Often times we find a tough
decision in Game 4 of a playoff series. The Mavericks are down 2-1
and home. Obviously it's must-win and the zig-zag clearly points to
them. I have no doubt the Mavericks will play a rousing game with a
full all-out effort. But once again I'm backing the Heat just like
in Game 3.
The perception going into this series was the Heat are the
better team. That perception is reality. Except for an inexplicable
half-quarter in Game 2, the Heat have proven superior to Dallas.
The Heat have outscored the Mavericks by a combined 25 points
during the other 11 1/2 quarters. Miami has repeatedly built double-digit leads. There are
reasons for this - huge matchup edges, better rebounding and
more superstars.
No one has performed better than Dirk Nowitzki during the
playoffs. Nowitzki can match any superstar - LeBron James included.
But the Mavericks don't have the second and third stars like Miami
does in Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh.
It might have been different for Dallas if Caron Butler didn't
get hurt, but he did. Jason Kidd, at his advanced age, Jason Terry
and Shawn Marion can't compare to Wade and Bosh when it comes to
playing second fiddle to their superstar. Wade rates right there
with Nowitzki and James as one of the top seven players in the
game.
Miami is stronger on the boards than Dallas and tougher inside
with the return to health of Udonis Haslem. The Heat outscored
Dallas, 40-22, scoring in the paint in Game 3. The Mavericks are
depth shy in the frontcourt with Brendan Haywood, their only solid
big man reserve, questionable and limited by a hip flexor.
The Heat captured Game 3 on the road despite shooting 12 fewer
free throws than Dallas, having a lower free throw percentage and
surprisingly being out-rebounded by six.
James had a sub-par game with only 17 points. He shot only
four free throws. Bosh missed 11 of 18 shots from the floor. Miami
isn't supposed to win on the road when these things happen.
The Mavericks have proven resilient. They have kept games
close in this series, but it's too much to ask of them to win by
any kind of margin. They have yet to successfully deal with Miami's
defensive team speed being held to an average of 12
points per game under their regular-season scoring average.
At no point through the first three games of the series have
the Mavericks ever led by three points in the fourth quarter. And
now the oddsmaker is making you lay three points if you want
the Mavericks in this game. No thanks.
Miami has won four of its last five road games, including the
past three, as away 'dogs at Boston, Chicago twice and Dallas.
The Heat are 8-1 ATS when playing on one day rest.
The Heat are healthier than Dallas right now and are the
superior team. James can raise his game. Nowitzki already is
playing at peak form. Marion has done an excellent job defending
James, but keep in mind he logged 43:08 minutes on Monday. That's
the most minutes the 33-year-old Marion has played in a
non-overtime game in four years. Marion is going to be weary
having only had one day of rest. Until proven otherwise, Miami still has to be
backed taking this many points.
More NBA Finals Betting Tips: We suggest reading NBA FINALS Pivot Gm 4: Smoking Gun=100 | 2 UNIT PLAY by forum poster Stevebeav which is packed with some great NBA Finals betting information for game #4.
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