NBA Finals Game 3 Preview: Thunder vs. Pacers Analysis and Betting Insights
As the NBA Finals return to Indiana with the series tied 1-1, analysts Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers offer a comprehensive breakdown of Games 1 and 2, team performance, player statistics, betting angles, and projections for Game 3. This matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers has already produced drama, unexpected comebacks, and significant shifts in the betting markets.
Game 1: Indiana’s Stunning Comeback
Game 1 was poised to be a routine victory for Oklahoma City. The Thunder held control most of the game, but Indiana surged late to pull off a 111-110 win. Despite being labeled the most overrated player by peers, a Pacers standout delivered the game-winner. Mackenzie Rivers noted the Thunder’s mere 207 passes—lowest by any team this season—and inefficient shooting from key players: SGA scored 38 (14/30 FG), Holmgren struggled at 2/9, and Jalen Williams hit just 6/19.
The performance reflected a young roster, average age 24, navigating its first NBA Finals. Rivers compared their experience to LeBron, Kobe, and Tatum’s early Finals performances, all of whom struggled similarly. Despite the Game 1 loss, Rivers maintained Oklahoma City’s superior standing in power ratings (+12 net rating vs. Indiana’s +2).
Game 2: Thunder Regain Control
Game 2 saw a return to form for the Thunder, who secured a 123-107 win and easily covered the spread. Oklahoma City’s balanced attack featured SGA with 34 points (11/21 FG), Jalen Williams with 19, Holmgren rebounding with 15 points (6/11 FG), Caruso hitting four threes en route to 20 points, and Aaron Wiggins contributing 18 off the bench.
Manji praised Coach Mark Daigneault’s adjustments, both in-game and series-wide. Rivers bolstered this by citing Daigneault’s 60.2% ATS record over 366 games—best among NBA coaches since 2020. The Thunder’s first-half dominance has been a trend, leading by an average of 14 points and keeping both first halves under the total.
Game 3 Betting Analysis and Trends
Despite the Thunder’s 0-7 ATS road record in the playoffs, Rivers dismissed its significance, citing small sample size. He backed OKC -5.5, noting parallels to their series vs. Denver where they were favored by a similar margin and the market viewed Indiana as even weaker competition.
Key betting metrics:
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Thunder series price rose from -300 after Game 1 to -525 after Game 2.
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ATS history: teams that win and cover Game 2 and are road favorites in Game 3 are 3-0 straight up and ATS in Finals history.
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Rivers estimated the true line should be closer to -7.
Pacers at Home: Performance and Total Trends
Indiana boasts a strong playoff home record across two seasons: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS, and 10-6 to the over in 16 games. When coming off a loss, the Pacers are 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU at home. Munaf recommends correlating Pacers and over bets based on trends.
Pace and Player Prop Analysis
The series has featured unusually fast pace for the Finals—Game 1 at 102.5 and Game 2 at 98—outpacing recent slow Finals like Nuggets-Heat. The volume of three-point attempts has fueled scoring despite low transition play. Both analysts endorse the over (228) for Game 3.
They highlight Tyrese Halliburton’s props as value plays:
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Over 25.5 combined points and assists
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Double-double at +160 (achieved 8x in 18 playoff games; 4 at home)
When Halliburton scores 20+, he averages 11 assists, indicating positive correlation.
Darius Garland Injury and Trade Implications
Garland’s toe surgery sidelines him 4-5 months, sparking trade rumors linking him to Sacramento. Rivers emphasized Garland’s pivotal role alongside Donovan Mitchell. Without him, Cleveland’s offensive chemistry suffers. Despite injuries, Rivers believes the Cavs are stronger than Indiana or New York if healthy.
Eastern Conference odds:
Knicks Coaching Search
With New York’s head coaching job open, names floated include Jason Kidd, Mike Malone, and long shots like Jeff Van Gundy. Rivers argued the Knicks need a veteran to handle the pressure and maximize the roster, with Kidd possibly seeking a fresh start away from Dallas.
Conclusion
Game 3 offers strong betting angles. Both analysts favor Thunder -5.5 and the over at 228, with added prop value on Halliburton. While the Pacers thrive at home, OKC’s adjustments and overall edge remain compelling. Garland’s injury casts a long shadow on Cleveland’s future, and coaching shifts could reshape the East. The series remains unpredictable, but Game 3 may tip the balance definitively.