2024-2025 NBA Finals Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers
The 2024-2025 NBA Finals feature a showdown between two distinctly different yet exciting teams: the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. On RJ Bell's Dream Preview NBA podcast, hosts Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers provide an in-depth preview, covering coaching changes, player matchups, statistical comparisons, and betting analysis.
Coaching Changes: Thibodeau Out, Knicks Search for Stability
The offseason drama started with the firing of New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau, despite back-to-back 50-win seasons and a long-awaited conference finals appearance. Munaf and Mackenzie attribute this to the increasing ease of firing coaches over reshaping player rosters in today’s NBA. Mackenzie acknowledges that while Thibodeau exceeded expectations, market pressure and limited roster flexibility led to his dismissal.
Potential replacements include former NBA champion coach Mike Malone, but Jay Wright emerges as a more natural fit due to his Villanova connections with Knicks players Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges. Munaf also criticizes the Knicks’ decision to re-sign OG Anunoby to a large contract, arguing that they still lack a second consistent scorer beside Brunson.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Rumors: Toronto as a Destination
Adding intrigue to the Eastern Conference, reports link Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Toronto Raptors. Mackenzie details how Toronto’s assets — including Scottie Barnes and the ninth overall draft pick — position them as legitimate trade partners. Munaf underscores that Tatum's injury opens the East, potentially encouraging Giannis to seek an easier championship path outside of Milwaukee.
Oklahoma City’s Statistical Superiority
Turning to the Finals matchup, Mackenzie highlights Oklahoma City’s extraordinary regular season performance. OKC posted a +12.6 net rating, the league’s best, while Indiana managed just +2.1. This 10.5-point differential is the second-largest in any playoff matchup across the past seven seasons, signaling OKC’s overwhelming edge.
Historically, series with similar disparities have averaged just five games, reinforcing Mackenzie and Munaf’s shared prediction of either a sweep or a five-game victory for OKC.
Defensive Edge and Team Depth
OKC’s defense has been dominant throughout the postseason, leading the league with a 104.7 defensive rating while averaging double-digit steals per game. They also excel in limiting fast break points, allowing just 9.3 per game, narrowly edging Indiana’s 9.4. While both teams play at high speeds — OKC ranks second in pace, Indiana third — OKC’s defensive versatility poses significant challenges for Indiana’s offensive stars.
The Thunder's deep and youthful roster includes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (26), Chet Holmgren (23), Jalen Williams (24), Lu Dort (26), and Isaiah Hartenstein (27), anchored by veteran Alex Caruso. OKC’s perimeter defense, featuring elite stoppers like Caruso, Dort, and Williams, creates tough matchups for Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam.
Betting Insights and Predictions
The betting markets heavily favor OKC, with DraftKings listing them at -700 and BetOnline at -670 to win the series. Indiana sits as a +488 underdog. The spread for Game 1 is set at Thunder -9 with a total of 231 points.
Mackenzie leans toward betting OKC in the first half due to their rest advantage (nine days versus Indiana's four). Historically, teams with more rest are 22-7 straight up and 20-9 against the spread in playoff scenarios. SGA’s dominance against Indiana — averaging 36 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists in recent matchups — further strengthens OKC’s outlook.
Munaf also favors betting on OKC -9 for Game 1 while recommending an over 19.5 points prop for Siakam, citing his playoff experience and favorable matchups against OKC’s interior defenders.
Finals Experience
Only four players in the series bring previous NBA Finals experience: Alex Caruso (Thunder), Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Thomas Bryant (Pacers). The experience factor adds an interesting layer to the otherwise youthful rosters.
Finals MVP Longshots
While SGA is the overwhelming favorite for Finals MVP, Mackenzie identifies Siakam as a strong value pick at 16-1 odds. Munaf selects Jalen Williams at 35-1, arguing he could step up offensively if Indiana focuses its defensive efforts on limiting SGA.
Conclusion
Despite Indiana’s strong run and superior three-point shooting, Oklahoma City's depth, defensive excellence, and statistical dominance make them overwhelming favorites to secure their first championship of what could be multiple titles over the next decade. Munaf and Mackenzie both predict an OKC victory, most likely in a sweep or five-game series.