Friday night NBA and we will see the Miami Heat travel to the AT&T Center to take on the San Antonio Spurs. The game has a start time of 9:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have San Antonio listed as 10.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 185.
Analysis: The Miami Heat come in having lost their last 2 games and 4 of their last 5. This has not been a good team this year, but we all knew that once Lebron left for Cleveland. For the year Miami is 21-28 overall, which includes a 13-13 mark on the road. Miami has gone 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, but just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. the Western Conference and 1-5 the last 6 games in the series. The Heat have been a poor offensive squad this year, ranking 29th in scoring (92.6 ppg), 12th in shooting, 21st in 3 point shooting and 25th in FT shooting. The defense for this team has been very good, ranking 2nd in points allowed (96.3 ppg), 21st in defensive FG% and 25th in 3 point defense.
The Spurs come in of a hard fought 110-103 home win over the Magic, in a game that should have not been that close. The win now has San Antonio at 31-18 overall, including 19-7 at home, but still they are just 4th in the Southwest Division. San Antonio has gone 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 vs. the Southeast Division, but just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Spurs have been a decent offensive squad, ranking 13th in scoring (101.1 ppg), 9th in shooting, 6th in 3 point shooting and 11th in FT shooting. The defense for this team been very solid, ranking 8th in points allowed (97.4 ppg), 12th in defensive FG% and 17th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Let's go with the Under here. Miami Has very little offense right now and have averaged just 92.3 ppg away from home. In their last game the heat put up 101 points at Minnesota, but it's interesting to note that the last 11 times they scored 100+ points this year they came back to average just 84.4 ppg in their next game. The Spurs defense has been shakier than normal this year, but I don't see them having to do a whole lot to keep Miami from scoring in this one. The Spurs have been solid on offense this year, but Miami is the 2nd ranked defense in the league and has allowed just 95.3 ppg on the road. This has been an Under series, with 28 of the last 40 games between these teams falling Under the total. Miami Can't score and this should be a rather slow paced game, so I look for another under between these teams tonight.
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