As the National League (NL) wildcard round approaches, excitement builds around two pivotal matchups: the New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers, and the Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres. These matchups highlight key storylines, such as the importance of pitching depth, player health, and team momentum. Hosts Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner dissect these two series, offering insights on each team’s strengths, weaknesses, and the factors likely to determine the outcomes.

Mets vs. Brewers: Health, Pitching, and Momentum

Severino vs. Peralta: Game 1 Matchup

The New York Mets are set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in a series where pitching could define the outcome. The Mets will start Luis Severino, a reliable pitcher who has been a standout in their rotation. On the other hand, Freddy Peralta, the Brewers' starter, has had an inconsistent season. Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner agree that Peralta hasn’t lived up to expectations this year, despite having the capability to shut down lineups on his best days.

Griffin points out that while Severino has been solid, his recent starts show signs of fatigue. He allowed three earned runs in each of his final three starts, which lasted only four innings. Meanwhile, Peralta’s performances at home have been shaky, with a 4.01 ERA at home versus a stronger 3.29 ERA on the road. However, Peralta has a good track record against the Mets, having held them to a single earned run in six innings earlier in the season.

The Brewers have home-field advantage and a solid track record within their division, but as Griffin explains, they benefited from a relatively weak NL Central. The Mets, on the other hand, are coming off an emotionally exhausting stretch to clinch a wildcard spot, making them a wildcard (pun intended) in terms of their stamina and focus.

Mets’ Health Concerns: Francisco Lindor and Edwin Diaz

The Mets’ chances in this series will be heavily influenced by the health of their star players. Francisco Lindor has been battling a back injury, and although he played a key role in clinching the playoff spot with a crucial home run, his health remains a question mark. Lindor was reportedly moving better in recent games, but it’s unclear if he’ll be 100% for the series.

Edwin Diaz, the Mets’ closer, poses another concern. He pitched 66 total pitches over two days in the final stretch of the regular season, raising doubts about his availability for game one. Griffin highlights this as a major potential issue, noting that if Diaz can’t pitch—or is limited—it could create a serious vulnerability in the late innings. The Mets' bullpen has already shown signs of struggle, and losing Diaz's services would only exacerbate the situation.

Brewers' Key Players: Freddy Peralta and Christian Yelich’s Absence

For the Brewers, Freddy Peralta’s performance will be crucial. While Peralta hasn’t been as dominant this season, he is still capable of overpowering lineups. He’ll need to be at his best to stifle a Mets lineup that, while banged up, can be dangerous when players like Lindor and Pete Alonso are in form. The Brewers will also miss one of their key offensive weapons, Christian Yelich, who was sidelined with a back injury earlier in the season. Yelich’s absence leaves a gap in their lineup, which could hurt their ability to put up runs against Severino and the Mets.

Despite these challenges, the Brewers remain a dangerous team, having dominated their division. Munaf emphasizes that Milwaukee’s ability to produce strong pitching performances in high-pressure situations, combined with their home advantage, could give them the edge.

Braves vs. Padres: Fatigue and Pitching Depth

Padres’ Momentum: Michael King’s Dominance

The San Diego Padres enter their series against the Atlanta Braves with significant momentum. Michael King, their post-All-Star break star pitcher, has been in phenomenal form, posting a 2.15 ERA in his last 11 starts. King’s consistency has been a major factor in the Padres’ success down the stretch, and he will be key to shutting down a Braves lineup that is missing Ronald Acuña Jr., their star outfielder.

Both Munaf and Griffin are high on the Padres heading into this series, largely due to the Braves’ weakened state. King’s ability to control the pace of the game and limit run production gives the Padres a significant advantage, especially in game one. As Griffin notes, the Padres’ rested bullpen also gives them a considerable edge over the Braves, whose relievers have been overworked in recent games.

Braves’ Pitching Woes: Fried or Anderson?

The Braves’ starting rotation is in flux, with uncertainty surrounding who will start game one. Max Fried was the likely candidate, but travel fatigue and rest concerns may force Atlanta to go with Ian Anderson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. This lack of clarity adds to the Braves’ challenges, especially considering that their bullpen was heavily taxed in the final games of the regular season.

Griffin highlights that the Braves had to use their top relievers in both games of a doubleheader just days before this series, leaving them with few reliable options in the bullpen. This overuse, combined with the uncertainty in their starting rotation, could leave the Braves vulnerable, especially if the Padres can get to their relievers early in the game.

Braves’ Key Absences: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Bullpen Fatigue

The absence of Ronald Acuña Jr., who has been sidelined with an injury, is a major blow to the Braves' offense. Acuña is one of the most dynamic players in baseball, and without him, the Braves will struggle to generate the kind of explosive offense needed to overcome the Padres’ deep pitching staff.

Additionally, the Braves' bullpen fatigue raises concerns about their ability to hold leads late in the game. With key relievers like A.J. Minter and Raisel Iglesias pitching multiple innings in the final games of the regular season, the Braves may not have the bullpen depth to compete with a rested Padres team.

Predictions: Mets vs. Brewers and Braves vs. Padres

Mets vs. Brewers: A Close Battle

Griffin and Munaf offer differing predictions for the Mets-Brewers series. Griffin leans toward the Mets, despite the challenges posed by Lindor’s injury and the bullpen’s fatigue. He believes that Severino’s solid performances and the Mets' ability to grind out tough wins could carry them through the series, especially if they can capitalize on Peralta’s inconsistency at home.

Munaf, however, sees the Brewers as slight favorites, particularly in game one. He points to Milwaukee’s home-field advantage and Peralta’s strong history against the Mets as reasons to believe the Brewers can pull off a win in the opener. However, he also acknowledges that the Mets have the potential to win the series if they can get past the Brewers in game one.

Braves vs. Padres: Padres Poised to Advance

Both hosts agree that the Padres are well-positioned to win their series against the Braves. Michael King’s dominance on the mound, combined with the Padres’ well-rested bullpen, gives them a clear edge in game one. The Braves, dealing with a depleted pitching staff and the absence of Acuña, face an uphill battle to keep pace with the Padres.

Griffin goes as far as to predict that the Padres could challenge the Dodgers in the next round if they maintain their current form. He believes that San Diego’s momentum, particularly in their pitching staff, makes them a dangerous team heading into the playoffs.

Final Thoughts: Wildcard Showdowns

The National League wildcard matchups offer compelling storylines, from the Mets’ injury concerns to the Padres’ dominant pitching staff. While both series feature teams with clear strengths and weaknesses, the unpredictability of playoff baseball ensures that anything can happen. The Mets and Braves, both facing significant challenges, will need to overcome fatigue, injuries, and pitching uncertainty if they hope to advance. On the other hand, the Brewers and Padres seem well-prepared to capitalize on their opponents' vulnerabilities.

As the wildcard round unfolds, pitching depth, player health, and momentum will be key factors in determining which teams move on to the next round of the National League playoffs.