Monday night baseball and I will have a free pick in the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds which will be played at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for a 7:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Betting Odds
Atlanta +126
Cincinnati -136
Over/ Under: 7.5 0 -115
This is game 1 of a 3 game series between these National League foes. The Cincinnati Reds come in off a 10 game road trip, inwhich they went 5-5 on, but did lose 3 of their last 4. Their trip started in Atlanta and they split the 4 game series. Atlanta has gone 4-8 in their last 12 games and they come in off a series in Washington in which they lost all 3 games. The Reds are now 15-16 overall, including 6-5 at home, while Atlanta has gone 14-17 overall and just 6-9 on the road.
Atlanta ranks 12th in scoring (4.42 rpg), 12th in hitting (.258) and 21st in homers (24), while on the mound they are 24th in ERA (4.47) and 24th in WHIP (1.40). Atlanta has gone 5-1 in Miller's last 6 starts, but just 18-40 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cincinnati ranks 19th in scoring (4.10 rpg), 20th in hitting (.239) and 3rd in homers (39), while on the mound they are 15th in ERA (4.04) and 9th in WHIP (1.24). Cincinnati has gone 9-4 the last 13 in the series, but just 5-11 in Leake's last 16 starts overall and 1-7 in his last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
Toeing the rubber for the Braves tonight will be Shelby Miller, who is 4-1 on the year with a 1.66 ERA. Shelby has faced the Reds 7 times in his career and he is just 2-3, but with a solid 3.24 ERA in those starts. At Great American Ballpark he is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 4 starts.
Getting the ball for Cincinnati tonight will be Mike Leake, who comes into this game at 2-1 with a 2.47 ERA overall, while in his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a skinny 1.17 ERA. Mike has had good success vs the Braves, going 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA in 7 career starts vs them. At GAB he is 30-23 with a 4.22 ERA in 77 games (76 starts).
Pick: I am going to look Under in this game. neither offense has been all that good this year and this is a solid pitching matchup on the mound with Miller vs Leake, who both have put up solid numbers this year. Shelby miller has a 1.66 ERA on the Year, while Leake comes in with a 1.17 ERA in his last 3 starts. Atlanta hits just .243 on the road, while the Reds hit a mere .214 at home. Hard to see a ton of runs in this one.
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