Major League Baseball on Monday night and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers, which will be played at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on the locally.
Over/ Under: 7.5 U -125
This is game 1 of a 3 game series between these National League West foes. Arizona has been playing decent ball of late as they have won 4 of their last 6 games. Still they are in 4th place in the NL West with a 27-29 record. The Dodgers are slumping a bit as they have won just 4 of their last 11 games and they come off a 4 game series vs the Cards, in which they lost 3 of the 4 games. LA's lead in the NL West is down to a half a game over the Giants. The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in scoring (4.71 rpg), while on the mound they are 26th in ERA (4.29). LA ranks 8th in scoring (4.39 rpg), while on the mound they are 4th in ERA (3.37).
Trend for this game include: The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-1 in De La Rosa's last 6 starts, but just 1-11 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Dodgers are 21-6 in their last 27 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 37-17 in their last 54 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Getting the ball for Arizona tonight will be Ruby De La Rosa, who is 4-2 with a 5.09 ERA on the year overall, while on the road he has gone 1-2 with a 4.83 ERA. Ruby is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 1 career start vs the Dodgers.
Toeing the rubber for the Dodgers tonight will be Mike Bolsinger, who has gone 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 6 starts this year, while at home he has gone 3-0 with an 0.46 ERA. This will be his first ever start vs this former team.
Pick: I am going with the Dodgers in this one. I know they are off a Sunday night game, but they are not traveling here so it should have little affect on them. Bolsinger has been incredible at home and the Dodgers need this game in then worst way. I look for they to come out fighting and get this win rather easily, behind another strong outing from Bolsinger.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.