MLB Underdog Alert: Why Griffin Warner Backs the Brewers Over the Mets

Griffin Warner, on RJ Bell’s "Dream Preview" podcast, delivered a sharp and timely MLB betting insight. He argued that the Milwaukee Brewers, led by Freddy Peralta, offer exceptional underdog value against the New York Mets. Here’s a breakdown of his commentary, structured by quotes, team analysis, betting insights, and context—all directly from the transcript.

? Quote-by-Quote Analysis with Timestamps

 0:00 – 1:19 | The Pick: Brewers +107

"I'm going to go with Freddy Peralta, plus 107 underdog on the road at the New York Mets. Brewers have been playing great, the Mets have been playing terribly."

Analysis: Warner opens with a clear pick—backing the Brewers at +107. He sees this as mispriced given current form. The Brewers are trending up; the Mets are spiraling. He underscores that bettors are getting positive odds for the better-performing team.

"I think there is just too much there for a plus price on Milwaukee."

Analysis: The value narrative continues. Warner is identifying inefficiencies in the betting market, suggesting that Milwaukee shouldn't be this big of an underdog.

"I'm kind of nervous that if our listeners don't jump on this quickly, we might even see the Milwaukee Brewers climb towards a favorite."

Analysis: This is a warning about line movement. Warner believes market momentum could flip Milwaukee into the favorite role. It’s a call for urgency—smart bettors need to move fast before the odds shift.

"It’s only $0.07 right now bet online and probably will be somewhere over there. I would jump on this quicker than wait."

Analysis: Warner quantifies the line at a +107 price, emphasizing how narrow the window is. He’s telling listeners this pick won’t last at these odds.

"Of course, if you're a line shark, then watch to see what happens. We just haven't seen it from the Mets."

Analysis: For more strategic bettors (“line sharks”), he offers an option to monitor odds. But ultimately, Warner maintains that the Mets haven’t demonstrated the consistency or quality to justify being favored.

"Closest favorites, an entire three-game sweep on the road at Pittsburgh."

Analysis: He discredits the Mets’ recent win streak in Pittsburgh, implying it’s an outlier rather than a sign of actual improvement.

"I think there's a lot of flaws in the Mets' bullpen. You could argue there are lots of flaws everywhere else."

Analysis: A direct attack on the Mets’ roster. He doesn’t just criticize one part—the bullpen—but extends it to the whole team. It’s a full rejection of New York’s current roster construction.

"Got really fat and happy off a pretty weak schedule to start the season."

Analysis: Warner suggests that the Mets’ earlier success was schedule-driven, not performance-based. A critical point for understanding public overvaluation.

"And Brewers, who probably couldn't have started out worse, getting swept in the Bronx."

Analysis: In contrast, the Brewers’ early struggles (swept by Yankees) make their current rise even more impressive. Warner’s setting up a redemption arc for Milwaukee.

"They're sneaking up on the Chicago Cubs right now."

Analysis: Milwaukee is now climbing the NL Central standings. Warner references the competitive nature of their division positioning to emphasize current form.

"Certainly a pick that Munaf and I gave out earlier this season. The Brewers were in the division. It looked dead early..."

Analysis: Warner is reaffirming long-term conviction. This isn’t a one-time pick. He and co-host Munaf Manji had previously recommended the Brewers, showing consistency and credibility.

"Especially when the Cubs went to Milwaukee and the Brewers seem to be losing the first two of every series and stealing the last game not to get swept."

Analysis: This quote reflects a former inconsistency in the Brewers’ series performances, where they frequently avoided sweeps but couldn’t clinch series wins. Now, that pattern has changed.

"Well, things have changed and I love what the Brewers are doing lately."

Analysis: It’s a strong endorsement of Milwaukee’s turnaround. Warner sees momentum and development.

"So go Milwaukee, plus $1.07, Freddy Peralta. Love it."

Analysis: His closing line reconfirms both the player (Freddy Peralta) and the odds (+107). The phrase “Love it” signals strong conviction.

 Team and Player Insights

Freddy Peralta

• Although no stats were provided, Peralta is clearly the backbone of this pick. His presence boosts confidence in Milwaukee’s starting rotation.

 Milwaukee Brewers

• Once off to a rough start, now resurgent and chasing the Cubs.

• Show resilience: previously losing early in series but fighting to avoid sweeps.

• Backed earlier in the season by Warner and Munaf.

 New York Mets

• Described as “terrible” lately.

• Only highlight: sweep in Pittsburgh.

• Criticized for bullpen weaknesses and padded early-season success due to a soft schedule.

 Betting Summary

• Best Bet: Brewers +107

• Player Highlighted: Freddy Peralta

• Market Movement: Expected shift toward Brewers as favorites

• Reasoning: Current team form, Mets' flaws, market inefficiency