Tuesday night baseball and we will see the Chicago Cubs travel to Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres in game 1 of their 3 game series. Free Pick to follow. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on the MLB Network.
Betting Odds
Chicago +108
San Diego -118
Over/ Under: 6.5 U -115
The Chicago Cubs come in playing very good ball right now as they have won 6 of their last 7 games, to climb to 2nd place in the NL Central. The Cubs are 21-16 overall and 8-8 on the road this year. The Padres are not playing very well at the moment as they have lost their last 3 games in a row and 5 of their last 7. San Diego is now just 19-20 on the year overall and just 10-10 at home.
The Cubs rank 15th in scoring (4.32 rpg), 18th in hitting (.249) and 15th in homers (34), while on the mound they are 14th in ERA (4.05) and 9th in WHIP (1.25). The Cubs have gone 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series, but just 1-11 in their last 12 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower and 3-8 the last 11 games in San Diego.
San Diego comes in ranked 8th in scoring (4.49 rpg), 17th in hitting (.251) and 13th in homers (36), while on the mound they are 24th in ERA (4.43) and 21st in WHIP (1.37). The Padres have gone 26-8 in their last 34 games as a home favorite and 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, but just 7-19 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Getting the ball for the Cubs tonight will be Jason Hammel, who is 3-1 with a 3.11 ERA on the year overall and is 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA on the road. Jason is 4-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) vs the Padres, which includes a 3-1 mark and a 3.21 ERA in 5 starts at Petco.
Getting the ball for the Padres tonight will be James Shield, who is 5-0 with a 3.94 ERA in his first year so far with the Padres. At home he has gone 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA and that now makes him 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. Shield has gone 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA in 2 carer starts vs the Cubs.
Pick: I will look at the Over in this game. I know that Shields has pitched will in this park, but still his home starts this year have averaged a hefty 13 rpg. Very unusual for this park, but it has been a higher scoring season than normal at Petco as this park is used to allowing just un 7 rpg, but this year it has yielded 9.5 rpg. Much higher scoring games here than in years past. The Cubs come in averaging 4.6 rpg in their last 10 games and 5.12 rpg on the road, and we note that their road games have averaged 10.56 rpg on the road. Hammel has a 4.00 ERA on the road, while the Cubs as a team have a 5.07 ERA away from home and the Padres have a team ERA of 4.43 at home. 6.5 is just too low for this game, especially with Hammel struggling some on the road and Shields with a 5.71 ERA in his last 3 starts.
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