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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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MLB Saturday Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants: Start Time, Odds, Free Pick

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Saturday afternoon baseball and we will see the Cincinnati Reds take on the San Francisco Giants in game 3 of their 4 game set. The game is scheduled for a 4:05 (ET) pm start time and it will be televised live locally. Currently the odds have the Reds favored at -116, while the Giants are dogs of +109. The total for the game sits at 7.5 runs.

Free Analysis: This is done before the results of Friday night are known. The Reds had a solid divisional lead a short time ago, but by going 3-7 in the last 10 games (prior to Friday) they are now in a dog fight with Pittsburgh and St Louis for the Central Division Title. Prior to Friday the Reds have lost 4 in a row on the road, while they are 18-18 overall away from home. The Reds were shut out on Thursday and scoring on the road has bee a problem for them this year as they average 3.9 rpg away from, compared to 4.9 rpg at home. The Reds have hit just .213 and have scored just 3.4 runs per 9 innings off of lefties on the road. From a pitching standpoint, the Reds have a 3.52 ERA on the road. Today's starter, Mat Latos, has been decent for the Reds with a 6-2 mark and a 4.77 ERA, but on the road he is just 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA, with the Reds going 2-4 in his road starts. For the Giants, they came into Friday night's contest having thrown 4 straight shutouts. Thanks to those shutouts, which 3 were vs the Dodgers, the Giants have fought their way to the top of the NL West standings. The Giants came into Friday night's game at 25-14 at home. The Giants average just 3.4 rpg at home, but their solid home record is mostly due to the fact that they have a 2.35 home ERA on the year. Today they will be starting Barry Zito, who has been struggling of late. Barry is just 1-3 with a 7.17 ERA in his last 4 starts, but he has pitched well at home this year, with a 4-2 mark and a 3.28 ERA. Mat Latos is 3-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Giants, while Zito is 3-4 with a 6.79 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) vs the Reds. Looking at some trends we note that the Reds are 5-0 in Latos' last 5 starts as a favorite and 6-1 in his last 7 starts overall, while the Giants are 7-1 in Zito's last 8 starts as a home dog, but just 4-10 in his last 14 starts vs a team with a winning record. 

Free Pick: I'm going to look at the Over in this one. Mat Latos has really struggled on the road with a 7.45 ERA in 6 starts. Those 6 road starts have averaged a healthy 12.5 rpg. Mat has a 2-0 in 5 day starts, but with a 4.55 ERA and those starts have averaged 9.2 rpg. Mat has some good numbers vs the Giants, with a 2.35 ERA, but this is a different Mat this year and the Giants improved offense should be able to tag him for a few. Barry Zito had a great start to his year, but has fallen apart of late. he did throw 7 shutout innings ve the Dodgers in his last starts, but not real impressive considering how bad the Dodgers offense has been of late. Prior to that start he allowed 17 ER's in just 14.1 innings of work. The Reds offense has struggled on the road (3.9 rpg), but they are more than capable of at least 4 runs off of Zito here. Two struggling pitchers should yield enough runs for this game to hit at least 8 runs.

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MovieMLB Free Picks: Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants Betting
What baseball bettors need to know about Reds at Giants on Saturday (6/30/12) - with Pregame.com's Bryan Leonard and host Marco D'Angelo.