The Los Angeles Angels, after an opening second half stretch that included series against the Yankees, Tigers, and Rangers, would seemingly catch a break this evening as the Royals roll into Anaheim for a three game set. Start time in tonight’s MLB Monday Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels series opener is set for 10:05pm ET; the latest MLB Odds have Los Angeles listed as a heavy -205 moneyline favorite ($205 to win $100). Kansas City is a +190 play to pull off the upset while the Under 8 runs is drawing -125 odds.
The Kansas City Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball; however, despite their myriad of woes, they may stand a better chance this evening than the current line would indicate.
For starters, the Royals are a far better road than home team as they come into tonight’s contest with a 23-24 away record. Kansas City, which opened the season by taking two out of three from the Angels at Anaheim, did close out the first half with a 3-8 road swing, but after opening the second half with a 3-7 home stand, the club is probably ready for some different scenery.
Secondly, Bruce Chen, while far from an ace, is probably the best man for tonight’s job. Chen is coming off a series of miserable starts, but he did get a win his last time out as the Royals provided eight runs in support. In fact, KC’s offense has been quite dangerous with Chen on the hill of late, averaging 7.8 runs per game over his last five starts.
Chen, while disastrous on the road most of this season, does have solid career numbers against the Angels. The well-traveled veteran is 1-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven career appearances against Los Angeles (five starts) and his ERA in four outings at Angel Stadium is an enviable 1.33.
The Angels, who are 4-6 since the break, will counter Chen with lefty hurler C.J. Wilson. Wilson is having an outstanding first season with L.A., posting a 2.82 ERA and 9-6 record in 20 starts, but he has struggled some of late. In his last outing he got lit up for eight hits and seven earned runs over six innings in a 7-2 loss to the Tigers. And, while free passes have been a bit of an issue for Wilson all season, he has really scuffled with the problem in July, issuing 15 walks since the first of the month (four starts).
To be clear, the Angels are favored for a reason in this matchup; however, MLB betting is about finding value. Kansas City seldom represents that, but in tonight’s situation they do. Chen is just the type of pitcher, regardless of his recent performance, that can produce an unexpected masterpiece. And, for whatever reason, the Royals bats have been active with him on the mound.
It is easy to envision an Angels’ victory here, but, having observed the Royals schizophrenic nature for a number of years, this is just the type of situation where they steal a game or at least make a competitive showing. And with a +190 line, KC seems like a risk worth taking.
MLB Monday Betting Trend: The Royals are 6-4 in their last 10 games as a road underdog with a total between 7.5 and 8 runs.
MLB Monday Odds: Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-120), Over 8 (+105), +190 (Moneyline)
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+100), Under 8 (-125), -205 (Moneyline)
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Betting Strategies: Handicapping Theories
Host Marco D'Angelo and Pregame Pro Dave Essler discuss there handicapping theories and what they look at when they are handicapping games.