The Inside Pitch Ep. 3: Data, Depth, and Dugouts – A Modern MLB Breakdown
Introduction
Baseball isn't just played on the field—it’s dissected in dugouts, discussed in data rooms, and strategized from sportsbooks. In Episode 3 of The Inside Pitch, Scott Seidenberg teams up with former Major League pitcher Josh Towers to unravel the analytics, mindsets, and stories shaping Major League Baseball in 2025. From betting angles to bullpen management, Cy Young candidates to mental health insights, this episode bridges numbers with nuance in the game’s evolving landscape.
The Sweep Betting System: Trends That Pay
Scott opens with fresh 2025 data on betting teams to avoid three-game sweeps:
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Favorites in game 3 of potential sweeps: 10-4
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Home teams in same spot: 8-2
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Underdogs: 6-10, netting a -201 unit loss
The profitability? Betting all sweep-avoidance games has returned $179, but isolating favorites gives $485, and home teams yields $565.
Josh confirms this reflects clubhouse reality: teams that have lost the first two games will often load their best lineup and relievers for game three, while winning teams may rotate in bench players or backups.
Bullpen Management: Missteps and Mind Games
Towers critiques common bullpen strategies. Managers often let starters pitch longer in “conceded” losses, resting key relievers until it’s too late.
He singles out:
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Rocco Baldelli (Twins): Letting Simeon Woods Richardson pitch deeper in a 4-1 loss but pulling him early in a tight 2-1 win.
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Dodgers: Down just 2-0, they deploy low-leverage arms, leading to a 16-0 blowout.
“You don’t just pitch your best guys when you’re ahead. Keep the game within reach.”
Live Betting: A Smarter Play
Scott pivots to his personal betting logic: betting the live total over rather than a moneyline comeback.
Example:
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Dodgers down 2-1 → over 6.5 looks safer than -115 comeback bet
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“Extra innings, other team scoring—more paths to profit,” he argues.
A painful anecdote: With Pete Crow-Armstrong on third, 0 outs, Scott expected 1.43 runs per MLB’s run expectancy matrix. The Cubs scored zero, and Scott lost the over.
Situational Baseball: A Dying Art
The duo laments MLB's shift away from:
Example:
Red Sox game where Devers could’ve driven in the winning run with a hole on the right side—if the runner hadn’t been caught stealing.
Josh: “The game’s too close to not use every advantage.”
Mental Health in Baseball: Duran & Drew Robinson
A powerful discussion on Jarren Duran’s Netflix reveal about suicidal thoughts echoes Drew Robinson’s tragic attempt.
Josh opens up:
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Many players never make MLB not for lack of talent but due to pressure.
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MLB must teach failure management, not just performance.
“Failing is easy. Success is hard.”
Award Market Watch: Cy Young Favorites & Metrics
AL Cy Young:
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Garrett Crochet (Red Sox): +210, 7 no-hit innings, FIP: 1.23
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Tarek Skubal (Tigers): +425
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Cole Ragans: 34 K in 23 IP
Josh argues Crochet was underpaid, and warns future pitchers not to use that deal as precedent.
NL Cy Young:
“Skenes’ stuff is so good, he’s effective by accident.”
ERA vs FIP: Pitching Smarter
Josh and Scott emphasize FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as the better skill metric:
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Chris Bassitt: MLB’s best FIP (1.20)
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Rasmussen, Luzardo, Fried also impress
Josh explains: “You can’t control your team’s defense—but you can control your pitch quality.”
Divisional Outlook: AL & NL Heat Up
AL East: Wide open
NL West:
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Padres: 10-0 at home, 13 wins
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Dodgers: 11-6 but 0 run differential
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Towers: “You can’t manage a team on paper”
Futures & Team Props
Padres are:
Mets:
Yankees:
Conclusion
This episode of The Inside Pitch fuses gambling precision, team psychology, statistical analysis, and player humanity. Scott brings sharp angles for smart bettors, while Josh provides the insider depth of a former pro. They agree: baseball is played on paper, on the field, and in the mind—and mastering all three is the game’s greatest challenge.