MLB Friday Betting Preview: Expert Analysis, Picks & Trends
Welcome to the definitive breakdown of Friday’s Major League Baseball matchups, as delivered by Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner on RJ Bell’s Dream Preview. This episode takes a deep dive into player performances, pitching duels, and betting strategies for serious sports bettors and fantasy enthusiasts.
Cubs vs. Mariners: Boyd’s Wrigley Dominance
Matthew Boyd is the standout here. He’s posted a perfect 6–0 record at Wrigley Field with a 2.25 ERA over 36 innings. The Cubs' moneyline (-126) is seen as undervalued considering Boyd’s form and Seattle’s swing-and-miss tendencies. George Kirby, back from injury, has been shaky, and wind direction will heavily impact total bets.
Pick: Cubs ML
Lean: First Five Under (pending wind)
Rangers vs. Pirates: Underdog Play in Pittsburgh
Jacob deGrom has maintained elite numbers (2.19 ERA), but Texas’ offense is inconsistent on the road. Mike Burrows is rounding into form, and with the Rangers failing to score in recent games, the hosts at +158 offer strong underdog value. Lean toward the under 8 due to both team’s run suppression.
Pick: Under 8
Lean: Pirates ML
Yankees vs. Orioles: Fried’s Home Field Streak
Max Fried has propelled the Yankees to a 7-0 record in his starts at Yankee Stadium, including 6-1 ATS. Though the Yanks struggle offensively, Fried’s dominance keeps them competitive. Tomoyuki Sugano showed surprising swing-and-miss metrics in their last meeting.
Pick: Yankees -1.5
Lean: Avoid full-game under
Rays vs. Tigers: Trend-Busting Total
Jack Flaherty’s control issues—8 walks in 2 starts—make the over 8.5 attractive, especially with the Rays’ red-hot offense (12-run comeback win midweek). Detroit’s trend of 11–1 to the over in road series openers backs this pick.
Pick: Over 8.5
Lean: Rays ML
Blue Jays vs. White Sox: Toronto’s Weekend Advantage
The White Sox are 1–11 SU on weekend road games (Fri-Sun). Spencer Turnbull starts for a surging Blue Jays offense featuring Addison Barger’s breakout. Fade the Sox and take Toronto on the run line and TT Over.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5
Lean: Team Total Over
Braves vs. Marlins: Letdown Spot for ATL?
After battling the Mets, the Braves might be in a letdown spot. Janson Junk starts for MIA; ATL’s lineup is surging (Ozuna, Riley, Acuna). A shaky bullpen for both clubs makes full-game totals tricky.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over
Lean: Avoid full-game plays
Cardinals vs. Reds: Underdog Value with Singer
Brady Singer has had solid performances vs. St. Louis, including 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER earlier this year. Andre Pallante offers low strikeout potential. Reds have value at +118 as they trend upward.
Pick: Reds ML
Lean: Full-game Over
? Twins vs. Brewers: Undervalued Arms, Strong Under
Jacob Mizorowski (“The Miz”) brings 102 mph heat. Twins starter Joe Ryan is 9-2-2 to the under this season. First-five under 4 is the safest play given bullpens’ volatility.
Pick: First Five Under 4
Lean: Brewers ML
? Rockies vs. D-Backs: Totals at Coors Rising
Zac Gallen has a solid 2.79 ERA at Coors but faces a hot Rockies offense. AZ’s bullpen is in shambles. The total is at 12, and the over is heavily leaned into.
Pick: Over 12
Lean: Diamondbacks TT Over
Dodgers vs. Nationals: Gore vs. Kershaw Duel
Clayton Kershaw has bounced back with strong outings. McKenzie Gore continues to impress despite playing for a rebuilding club. Take the first-five under 4.5—both starters are in form, but the bullpens are not.
Pick: First Five Under 4.5
Lean: Avoid full-game total
Giants vs. Red Sox: Cross-Country Fatigue Factor
The Red Sox travel to SF following a Seattle series. Hayden Birdsong has allowed only 5 ER in 25.1 IP at Oracle. Hunter Dobbins impressed vs. NYY, but Giants’ home field advantage gives them the edge.
Pick: Giants ML
Lean: Under 7.5
Athletics vs. Guardians: High Total in Sacramento
Jeffrey Springs has struggled at home (5.51 ERA). Oakland’s new West Sacramento field trends toward overs (24–14). Guardians are 6-13 vs. LHP.
Pick: Guardians ML
Lean: Over 10
Best Bets
? Final Notes
An extra Saturday episode is announced due to strong audience support. Fans are encouraged to tweet stats they'd like broken down—like the White Sox weekend curse. Promo code STEAL20 gives $50 off betting packages.