Friday night baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the St Louis Cardinals, which will be played at Busch Stadium in St Louis, Missouri. First pitch is scheduled for an 8:15 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Betting Odds
Cincinnati +125
St Louis -135
Over/ Under: 6.5 U -115
This is game 1 of a 3 game set between two teams that should contend for the NL Central title. The Reds started off the year strong, but since then they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and have gone 1-2 vs the Cards this year so far and have gone 19-44 in their last 63 games played in St Louis.
The Reds (5-4) come in 21st in scoring (3.67 rpg), 24th in hitting (.218) and 10th in homers (7). On the pitching front they are 15th in ERA (3.74) and 17th in WHIP (1.29). The Reds have gone 8-26 in their last 34 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 6-20 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series, but they are also 44-19 in Cueto's last 63 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
The Cards (5-3) come in ranked 19th in scoring (3.75 rpg), 8th in hitting (.258) and 28th in homers (4), while on the mound they are 2nd in ERA (2.12) and 4th in WHIP (1.00). The Cards have gone 51-18 in their last 69 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 10-2 in Wacha's last 12 home starts, but just 3-7 in his last 10 starts following a Quality Start.
Getting the ball tonight for Cincinnati will be Johnny Cueto, who is 0-1 on the year in two starts, but wit a very skinny 0.64 ERA. He has allowed just 8 hits and 1 ER in 14 innings of work this year. He has struggled with the Cards in his career, going 5-7 with a 4.01 ERA in 19 starts vs them, including 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA in 9 starts at Busch.
Getting the ball for the Cardinals will be Michael Wacha, who is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 1 start this year. That start was a 4-1 win over the Reds, in which he beat Cueto. Wacha is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 7 appearances (6 starts) vs the Reds in his career and he is 7-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 19 games (15 starts) in his career at Busch Stadium.
Pick: I will be going with the Cards in this one. Johnny Cueto is off to a rock solid start, but he has not had success vs the Cards in his career, especially in this park where he is 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA in 9 starts. Now he faces one of the best offenses in the league and I don' to expect him to look as good as he did in his first two starts this year. Johny did pitch well vs St Louis at home, but still lost 4-1 to Wacha, who is now 2-1 in his career vs the Reds with a 2.15 ERA. Michael has also pitched well at Busch, going 7-1 with a 2.31 in his career here. The Reds are not hitting the ball and they will need to score runs to beat the Cards in this one. I don't see it happening as St Louis continues is mastery over the Reds at home (44-19 L63 games here).
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