MLB Friday Betting Preview: Game-by-Game Analysis, Picks & Best Bets

The latest episode of RJ Bell’s Dream Preview with hosts Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner offered a thorough breakdown of Friday’s Major League Baseball slate. The hosts analyzed 12 matchups, providing stats, insights, and betting strategies based exclusively on current team form and player performances. This article recaps their discussion with a game-by-game lens, highlighting trends, quotes, and wagers of interest.

 Cubs vs. Pirates

Key Stats:

• Paul Skenes: 1.88 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 92 Ks, 20 BBs (4–6 record)

• Cade Horton: 4.11 ERA, 3–1 record

Summary:
Griffin faded Paul Skenes despite his elite stats, citing Pittsburgh’s inability to score. Munaf noted Skenes’ lack of run support. Horton has struggled as well, particularly in his latest outing.

Pick: Cubs ML –108; Under 7 Total Runs

 Phillies vs. Blue Jays

Key Stats:

• Gausman: 4 straight team wins; Suarez: 25.2 IP, 3 ER in last 4

• Phillies without Bryce Harper (injured)

Summary:
Gausman shows potential but inconsistent performance. Suarez continues to impress. Munaf and Griffin both expect a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 8.5 Total Runs

 Nationals vs. Marlins

Key Stats:

• Mitchell Parker at home: 3.32 ERA

• Edward Cabrera must contain base-stealers (MIA leads MLB in stolen bases allowed)

Summary:
Cabrera could be challenged by fast Nationals hitters like CJ Abrams and James Wood. Parker has been decent at home but faltering on the road.

Pick: Under 9 Total Runs; Lean Nationals ML

 Orioles vs. Angels

Key Stats:

• Morton: 2.1 IP, 4 ER in last start

• Kahnowitz: Four consecutive starts with 4 ER

Summary:
Both pitchers have struggled, and the park is conducive to home runs. Offensive momentum favors the Angels, but both sides could score.

Pick: Over 10 Runs; Lean Angels ML

 Yankees vs. Red Sox

Key Stats:

• Yarbrough: 7.11 ERA at Fenway

• Last series: all games had 15+ total runs

Summary:
Despite Crochet's ability, both pitchers have struggled against opposing teams. Expect another high-scoring rivalry game.

Pick: Over 8.5 Runs; Lean Yankees ML +122

 Mets vs. Rays

Key Stats:

• Mets 10–1 in first games of home series

• Clay Holmes: 2.95 ERA; 0.93 career ERA vs. Rays

Summary:
Holmes’ transition to starter has been seamless. The Mets are strong in openers and facing a vulnerable Taj Bradley.

Pick: Mets –1.5 Run Line (+128)

 Braves vs. Rockies

Key Stats:

• Elder: 12 Ks in last start; Braves 0–4 in his recent starts

• Marquez: inconsistent, especially vs. good offenses

Summary:
Though the Braves aren’t scoring as expected, the Rockies are unreliable on the road. Griffin favors the over with Braves likely to handle run production.

Pick: Over 9 Runs; Braves Team Total Over

 Rangers vs. White Sox

Key Stats:

• Rangers home games: 25–8 to the Under (76%)

• Offense scored 16 in two games last week

Summary:
Griffin reported Rangers' chat optimism but remained skeptical. With White Sox errors and Rangers’ park effect, a low total is expected.

Pick: Lean Series Unders

 Astros vs. Twins

Key Stats:

• Colton Gordon: 6.28 ERA at home

• Paddack: strong outings, but Twins lost last 4 of his starts

Summary:
Munaf suggested value on Twins, given Gordon’s shaky home record. Both pitchers might concede early.

Pick: Twins ML +102; First 5 Innings Over 4

 Royals vs. A’s

Key Stats:

• Severino: 13 ER in last 11.1 IP

• Wacha: 3.01 ERA; 1.17 WHIP

Summary:
Royals favored with Wacha thriving. Severino’s struggles and Athletics’ HR reliance don’t align well in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium.

Pick: Royals ML; Royals Team Total Over; Under 8.5 Total

 Brewers vs. Cardinals

Key Stats:

• Peralta: 1.29 ERA at home

• Fedde: 2.88 ERA on road; 7 ER vs. Brewers earlier this year

Summary:
Fedde performs better on the road but was rocked by Milwaukee previously. Brewers have pitching edge at home.

Pick: Brewers ML; RL if needed to reduce juice

 Diamondbacks vs. Padres

Key Stats:

• Kollek: 0 ER in last 2 starts

• Nelson: 5.61 ERA vs. Padres

Summary:
Padres pen is elite; D-Backs pen is patchy. Kollek is in form and worth backing if price remains appealing.

Pick: Padres ML +101

 Dodgers vs. Giants

Key Stats:

• Logan Webb: 5–3 SU in 8 Dodger Stadium starts

• Yamamoto: 6.35 ERA vs. Giants

Summary:
Giants have performed well behind Webb at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers inconsistent and overpriced.

Pick: Giants ML +145; watch for Over if total drops to 7

Best Bets Recap

• Griffin Warner: Cubs ML –108 vs. Pirates

• Munaf Manji: Mets –1.5 RL (+128) vs. Rays

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