Inside Pitch Ep. 6: MLB Betting, Player Trends, and Tactical Breakdowns

Introduction

In Episode 6 of The Inside Pitch, Scott Seidenberg and former MLB pitcher Josh Towers dissect the state of Major League Baseball as of May 5, 2025. This data-rich conversation spans everything from standout teams and surging underdogs to MVP candidates and elite pitching metrics. Blending expert insight with sabermetric data and betting strategy, this episode offers a masterclass in both baseball analysis and sports wagering.

 The Dodgers Return to the Top

As of the podcast recording, the Los Angeles Dodgers had regained the best record in MLB at 23-11, despite a Sunday Night Baseball loss to Atlanta where Austin Riley hit two 2-run home runs. The Dodgers lead a competitive NL West where the Padres (22-11) and Giants (22-13) are also strong.

 Detroit Tigers: The Underdog Powerhouse

Josh Towers shines a light on the Detroit Tigers, who are excelling with a 13-3 home record, 22-13 overall, and best run differential in the league. Their improvement is credited to manager AJ Hinch, praised for his traditional, player-focused style rather than analytics-heavy management.

Key Players:

• Javier Baez: Near .300 AVG, .829 OPS

• Spencer Torkelson: .889 OPS

• Kerry Carpenter: .870 OPS

• Riley Greene: .808 OPS

Pitching Core:

• Tarek Skubal: Staff ace

• Casey Mize: 5-1, succeeding through control and strategy

• Jack Flaherty & Reese Olson: Reliable rotation support

• Tommy Kahnle: 5 saves, 1 ER in 12.2 IP — dubbed "Mr. Changeup"

? Central Division & Cardinals Forecast

While the Cardinals recently swept two doubleheaders, their road record (4-13) and overall inconsistencies make them a long shot for playoffs. The Cubs lead the division, and the Reds are highlighted as a team to watch, especially under Terry Francona, a potential Manager of the Year.

 MVP Races: Judge vs. Alonso

Aaron Judge (Yankees):

• .423 AVG, 11 HR, 33 RBIs

• Still hitting .306 even if he goes 0-for-50

• Triple Crown Odds: +145

• MVP Odds: -900 (vs. Field at +550)

Judge’s approach, consistency, and mental toughness make him the elite of the elite, likened to Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.

 Pete Alonso (Mets):

• .344 AVG, 13 doubles, 31 RBIs, only 8 HRs

• Reduced strikeout rate (1 every 5 ABs)

• MVP Odds: +650

Alonso’s adjusted hitting strategy — focusing on contact and opposite field — has transformed his game.

Juan Soto: High Exit Velocity, Low Results

Despite 113+ mph exit velocities, Soto remains underwhelming, blamed on early swings and Yankee Stadium’s influence on his mechanics. His deep fly balls would be HRs in many other parks but fall short now.

 Advanced Metrics: Who’s Hot & Who’s Due?

Underperformers (due for improvement):

• Salvador Perez: .294 wOBA → .412 xwOBA

• Andrew Vaughn

• Jock Peterson

Overperformers (due for regression):

• Javi Baez: .364 wOBA vs. .294 xwOBA

• Carson Kelly

• Tyler Fitzgerald

 Pitching Deep Dive

 Hunter Brown:

• ERA: 1.67, xERA: 3.02

• Uses offspeed to manage fly ball % (51.5%)

 Yoshinobu Yamamoto:

• ERA under 1.00

• xERA: 2.45, FIP: 2.25

• Known for pinpoint low-zone control — described as "Van Gogh painting"

Other Notables:

• Logan Webb: 54% GB rate

• Tim Hill (Yankees): 83% GB rate

• Paul Seawald: Fly ball prone, vulnerable in tight games

 Betting Market Insights

Weekly Trends:

• Monday Games: 60.8% Over rate

• Wednesday Games: 65% Under rate

• Best Home Teams: Dodgers (15-3), Mets (13-3), Tigers (13-3)

• Worst Road Teams: Rockies (2-17), White Sox (3-13), Cardinals (4-13)

 Strategic NERFY Bets (No Run First Inning)

Josh and Scott analyze pitcher tendencies to recommend NERFY bets:

• Yankees vs. Padres

• Cardinals vs. Pirates

• Royals vs. White Sox

Key stats:

• Mets: 22-7 to Nerfy vs. RHP

• Pirates’ Mlodzinski: 6-0 in first innings

• Cards’ Mikolas: 2 scoreless firsts in recent starts

Betting Philosophy & Final Picks

Scott reveals he’s moved away from first-three-inning bets after poor ROI and is focusing on first five innings and full-game bets. His recent form: 7-2, +10 units.

Final Bets Mentioned:

• Mets First Five & Game ML

• White Sox First Five

• Dodgers Team Total Under 5.5

• NERFY: Yankees, Cards, Royals

? Promo Offer

Get $20 off MLB picks with code PITCH20 at Pregame.com. Valid on 30-day access packages from top MLB analysts including Scott Seidenberg.

Conclusion

This episode blends old-school intuition with new-school analytics, highlighting why teams like the Tigers thrive without over-reliance on data. Judge and Alonso’s MVP pursuits show contrasting styles converging toward elite performance. For bettors, matchup-based and situational trends (e.g., Monday overs, weather effects, and Nerfys) offer meaningful edges.