Blowouts, Bounce-Backs, and Betting Angles: Inside MLB Trends with Josh Towers
As Major League Baseball transitions into July, former pitcher Josh Towers and host Scott Seidenberg dive deep into the latest team performances, pitching trends, and betting strategies on "The Inside Pitch" podcast, recorded June 30. From the historic rise in blowouts to analyzing Cy Young contenders, the duo offers sharp commentary grounded in stats and firsthand experience.
Historic Blowout Trends and Betting Opportunities
Record-Breaking Blowouts
This season has already seen 61 games decided by 10 or more runs—the highest before July since 2004. Towers and Seidenberg highlight how these blowouts affect public perception and shift betting lines, often creating exploitable opportunities.
Betting Against Recency Bias
The duo discussed a notable example where the Cubs crushed the Astros 12–3 on a Saturday, causing a line swing that overlooked Houston's resilience. Framber Valdez led the Astros to a 3–0 victory the next day, showing how blowouts don't define team potential.
Analyzing the Mets’ Meltdown
Offensive Inconsistency and Injury Setbacks
Despite early season hopes, the Mets have spiraled, losing 13 of 16 and getting outscored 30–4 in a Pittsburgh sweep. While their June WRC+ ranked 9th, their 4.80 ERA was 5th worst. Key players like Pete Alonso regressed, and injuries to Senga and others further hurt cohesion.
Rehabilitation and Rotation Issues
Josh Towers questioned pitcher readiness post-injury. Frankie Montas returned after six rehab starts totaling only 18 innings and struggled, showing the risk of rushing players back into major league action.
Spotlight on Elite Pitching
Skubal vs Crochet: Cy Young Battle
Tarik Skubal stands as the AL Cy Young frontrunner with a 9.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 1.98 FIP. Close behind is Garrett Crochet at +380 odds, with similarly strong numbers. Towers lauded Skubal’s downhill pitching and control over sequencing.
Suarez Shines in Philadelphia
Ranger Suarez posted a 1.19 ERA over his last 10 starts, the best such stretch for a Phillies pitcher since Cliff Lee. The Phillies’ second-best team ERA in June underscores their strength despite Bryce Harper's temporary absence.
Stadium Impact and Team Trends
Globe Life Park: From Launchpad to Pitcher’s Paradise
Texas’ Globe Life Park now ranks as MLB’s lowest-scoring venue. The Rangers are 30–12 to the under at home. Towers argued that it's the hitters—not the park—that have changed, noting no player has hit double-digit home runs.
Dodgers and Tigers Lead the Pack
With identical 53–32 records, the Dodgers and Tigers emerged as July’s strongest teams. Their success stems from pitching depth, smart management, and team balance.
Betting Forecast for July
Odds and Schedules
The Astros are listed as favorites to win the most games in July (+450), but their tough schedule raises doubts. The Dodgers (+500) and Tigers (+750) offer better value based on performance and matchups. The Cubs dropped to +900 after a sizable bet, though skepticism remains.
Evaluating True Contenders
San Diego’s record vs. winning teams (15–28) shows why deeper analysis matters. The hosts stress betting based on matchups and fundamentals over simplistic records.
Looking Ahead
The episode wrapped with a teaser for the midseason awards show set for the All-Star break. Listeners were also offered a promo code, BAT15, for $15 off at pregame.com. From deep pitching mechanics to exploiting public betting bias, Josh and Scott deliver a stats-backed, insider look at MLB's current landscape.