MLB Best Bet Breakdown – Griffin Warner on RJ Bell’s Dream Preview (May 9, 2025)
Introduction
In the May 9th, 2025 episode of RJ Bell’s Dream Preview, betting analyst Griffin Warner joined host Munaf Manji to share his top MLB play for Friday night’s slate. This article outlines Warner’s analysis, including pitcher evaluations, strategic betting insights, and supporting commentary from Manji. All information presented is drawn exclusively from the show transcript, offering a timestamped, quote-supported dive into their discussion.
Opening: Griffin’s Caution and Card Complexity (0:05–0:30)
Griffin Warner begins by highlighting the unpredictability of Friday’s MLB betting slate:
“There's a lot of danger on this card... I do like a lot of it... I will be spending a lot of time in the lab tonight…”
This sets the tone—Warner is not rushing into a pick. Instead, he acknowledges the nuanced matchups and emphasizes a methodical approach dependent on lineup confirmations and late data.
Gavin Williams Ruled Out (0:30–0:38)
Griffin initially leans toward selecting Gavin Williams but quickly backs off:
“...I’m just so scared that he’s going to throw a fastball and it’s going to get smashed all night.”
This comment indicates Williams’ fastball is a concern—perhaps due to predictability or poor placement. Despite Williams being a high-upside pitcher, Warner fears he’s too much of a liability in this spot.
The Pivot to Mitchell Parker and the Nationals (0:43–1:00)
Warner redirects his focus to Mitchell Parker, starting for the Washington Nationals:
“I think I’ve come around to Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals...”
The turning point came after watching Eric Fetty pitch:
“He’s walking the world and that’s been a big problem for him.”
Fetty’s control issues—a high walk rate—suggest increased scoring chances for opponents. Parker, by contrast, is perceived as a safer, more stable option.
? Nationals as a Thorn (0:50–1:03)
Griffin justifies his Nationals pick with qualitative team analysis:
“...they are very good to me at being a great thorn in good team’s sides.”
This characterization of the Nationals frames them as tenacious and undervalued, capable of upsetting teams like the Cardinals who don’t display top-tier consistency.
Official Bet and Odds (1:04–1:07)
Warner announces his bet:
“I’ll go to the Nationals minus 112 at home on Friday in the early slate of games…”
Key details:
Wrigley Commentary (1:07–1:10)
A side comment highlights the absence of a Cubs game:
“No Friday Wrigley baseball, sadly…”
This shifts attention toward other appealing matchups on the slate—like the Nationals vs. Cardinals game.
Munaf Manji’s Agreement (1:13–1:34)
Manji supports Warner’s pick:
“I’m glad you picked that because that was on my short list…”
He emphasizes the value in fading Eric Fetty:
“That has been a very profitable angle, especially on the road.”
He concludes with personal betting intent:
“So I will be betting that one personally myself as well.”
This agreement from both analysts reinforces the conviction behind the Nationals pick.
Player and Team Summary
Eric Fetty (STL)
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Criticized for excessive walks
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Described as "walking the world"
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Noted for poor road performance
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Central reason for betting against Cardinals
Mitchell Parker (WSH)
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Positively viewed as a reliable starter
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No specific stats given, but preferred over higher-risk options
Washington Nationals
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Valued for grit and underdog resilience
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Effective at disrupting stronger teams
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Home underdogs at modest -112 odds
St. Louis Cardinals
Conclusion
Griffin Warner’s best bet for May 9, 2025, is the Washington Nationals -112 at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, primarily targeting the vulnerability of Eric Fetty. Warner’s shift from Gavin Williams to Mitchell Parker illustrates a cautious, data-driven mindset. Munaf Manji agrees, citing historical profitability in fading Fetty. This episode offers a clean, consensus-backed betting strategy based solely on the matchup's variables.