State at Ohio State (odds -3) start timeL 3:30 PM EST ABC: Huge edge at the signal callers spot
with Spartans QB Cousins vs. FROSH QB Miller of the Buckeyes. And the
underrated Spartan defensive front will be a more dominant unit on the field
than their Buckeye counterpart.
With key offensive players still suspended for OSU, it makes this a
simple analysis. Home wins over
Akron, Toledo and Colorado are not nearly as telling as the 24-6 loss at Miami
in which OSU gained just 211 yards.
Yet, the perception of the Ohio State name may keep these pointspreads
on them inflated all season long.
Take “Defensive Dandy” Michigan State, who also has the better offense,
at this value underdog price as we continue to fade a reloading Ohio State team
with just 8 RS. Please note that,
despite a -39 AFP favoring Ohio State, this line has been impacted not one iota
since opening week.
A&M (-3) vs. Arkansas 3:30 PM EST ESPN Arlington, TX: Much like last week, A&M enters
this game with the better balanced offense and the better defense. That didn’t do them much good on their
strong home field where they turned a 20-3 half time lead into a 30-9
loss. Though the Hogs also enter
off a loss, it was to Alabama, arguably the best team in the country. These 2 have matched up at this site
each of the last 2 seasons. The
Hogs are 2-0 SU, ATS by counts of 24-17 and 47-19, both as small favorite. Now, we get them as underdog with an
upwardly mobile coach in Petrino, who is on an 11-3 ATS run. Welcome to the SEC-WEST, Aggies.
(-3-) at Kansas State 3:30 PM EST ABC: Siding with our “Defensive Dandy”
Kansas State, vs. “200 Club” member and “Steamroller” Baylor. Lots of media hype flowing to the Bears
and QB RG3 who are off to a 3-0 SU, ATS start (plus 34 AFP). Yes, the spectacular comeback vs. now,
not so impressive, TCU was ground breaking and vital. Remember, this team had finished 0-4 SU, ATS in 2010. That victory will spark consecutive winning
seasons for the Bears in HC Briles 4th year. But the combined wins over lowly SFA
and Rice by 104-31 leave them vastly overrated. This bureau was one of the few who believed the K State
resurgence was for real. The
result was a 28-24 upset of Miami (FL) last week. For the season, they are now allowing just 10 PPG and 157
YPG. Clearly those numbers will
not be as good after facing a Baylor offense that has put up video game numbers
of over 50 points and nearly 600 yards.
But it says here that the upset is no surprise to this bureau as crafty
HC Snyder wins this with a strong running game and a far better defense.
Free College Football Picks: Best Bet from Marco DAngelo
What college football bettors need to know about Air Force at Navy
(Saturday, October 1, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet
from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.