Mexico Open 2024: Expert Predictions, Betting Picks & Analysis
Tournament Overview
The Mexico Open 2024 at Vidanta Vallarta is set to showcase elite golf talent on a coastal course that rewards strong drivers and consistent ball strikers. With wide fairways and Paspalum greens, the tournament presents a unique challenge for players looking to gain an edge ahead of the Florida Swing.
Genesis Invitational Recap & Key Player Takeaways
Winner: Ludwig Aberg (-12)
- Secured his second PGA Tour win, playing the final six holes at -4.
- Led the field in strokes gained with 19 birdies and 2 eagles.
- Overcame illness & weight loss leading up to the event.
Notable Performances:
- Maverick McNeely (-11): Led for much of the final round but struggled on the last five holes.
- Scottie Scheffler & Patrick Rodgers (-9): Tied for third; Scheffler continues to be dominant despite a B-minus game.
Biggest Disappointments:
- Colin Morikawa (T-17, 16-1 odds): Struggled with ball striking, hitting only 41/72 greens.
- Rasmus Hojgaard (Missed Cut, 40-1 odds): Finished last place after an 82-77 start, a massive letdown.
Key Betting Mistakes from Genesis
Fading Scottie Scheffler: Still an elite contender despite minor struggles.
Underestimating Maverick McNeely: His ball striking is elite at the moment.
Correct Fade on Adam Scott: Poor putting led to T-37 finish.
Mexico Open 2024 Betting Picks & Predictions
Top Course Fit Factors at Vidanta Vallarta
Elite Driving: Distance and accuracy are crucial on this long coastal course.
Long Iron Play: Strong approach shots are needed for key scoring opportunities.
Success on Paspalum Greens: Past performance on this surface is a key indicator.
Top Contenders & Betting Analysis
1?? Akshay Bhatia (14-1)
- Best coastal golfer on tour.
- Gained strokes putting in 12 straight events.
- Outright pick to win.
2?? Steven Jaeger (30-1)
- Top 20 in 3 straight Mexico Open appearances.
- Strong iron play & putting on Paspalum greens.
- Second outright pick.
3?? Ricky Castillo (100-1)
- Corn Fairy Tour graduate with elite driving.
- Coming off a T-15 finish at Torrey Pines.
- Longshot sleeper pick.
Best Prop Bets & Sleepers
Taylor Moore Top 20 (+170)
- Two top-10 finishes in his last four starts.
- Driving & putting have been strong.
Aldrich Potgieter Top 20 (+320)
- One of the best young drivers on tour.
- Weak chipping won’t be a major factor on this course.
First-Round Leader Picks
Alex Smalley (+500 to Top 10 after Round 1)
- Has shot 68 or better in 3 of 4 opening rounds this season.
- Early tee time advantage.
Chris Gotterup (+700 to Top 10 after Round 1)
- Great course fit with aggressive driving.
- Was T-2 here after Round 1 last year before WD due to illness.
DFS Lineups for Mexico Open
DraftKings DFS Picks (50K Budget)
Akshay Bhatia (10.7K)
Taylor Moore (9K)
Jake Knapp (8.6K)
Aldrich Potgieter (7.3K)
Ricky Castillo (7.2K)
Chris Gotterup (7.2K)
PGA Tour Fantasy Picks
- Captain: Akshay Bhatia
- Starters: Steven Jaeger, Ricky Castillo, Taylor Moore
- Bench: Jake Knapp, Aldrich Potgieter
Final Predictions
Winning Score: -21
Best Bet: Akshay Bhatia Top 10 (+200)
The Mexico Open 2024 promises to be an exciting tournament with top contenders poised to take advantage of the wide fairways and unique greens. With expert picks and sharp betting insights, this guide gives you the best chance to profit from the action.
Next Up: Cognizant Classic Preview!