Memorial Tournament 2025: Expert First Round Leader Picks by Dave Essler & Sleepy J

The Memorial Tournament, one of the PGA Tour's premier events, brings with it not just elite competition but also enticing betting opportunities. In this deep-dive analysis, we explore expert first-round leader (FRL) picks made by golf analysts Dave Essler and Sleepy J, featured on Pregame.com. Their selections are shaped by player performance, course fit, and, notably, Thursday morning tee times.

Why First Round Leader Bets Matter

First-round leader wagers target the golfer who will lead after Day One. These bets differ significantly from outright winner bets, emphasizing early momentum, course familiarity, and the ability to start hot—often favoring players with earlier tee times due to better weather and course conditions.

Sleepy J’s First-Round Leader Picks

JJ Spahn (45 to 1)

Sleepy J’s pivot from fading to backing JJ Spahn is based on recent form and strategy:

• Recent Finish: 4th place at the Charles Schwab Challenge

• Tee Time: Early starter, typically a weather advantage

• Course Record: Gradual improvement at Muirfield Village

• Momentum: Every club working during his last outing

Denny McCarthy (45 to 1)

Renowned for strong Day One showings, McCarthy is a seasoned pick:

• Track Record at Memorial: 2nd and 5th place finishes

• FedEx Cup Ranking: 32nd

• Consistency: Top-20 finishes and no missed cuts since last year

• Recent Form: 8th place at PGA Championship

• Tee Time: Early morning advantage

Dave Essler’s First-Round Leader Picks

Keegan Bradley (45 to 1)

While emotionally conflicted, Essler relies on the stats:

• Recent Performance: 8th at PGA Championship

• Strength: Exceptional approach play

• Concern: Late tee time and volatile form

• Contextual Factor: Ryder Cup captain status might add pressure

Sungjae Im (50 to 1)

A tactician with the short game needed for Muirfield:

• Strengths: Elite putter, strong around the greens

• Course Fit: Crucial scrambling skills match Muirfield’s small greens

• Form Caveat: Poor PGA showing after 5–7 consecutive weeks playing

• Recovery: Rested last week—potential rebound candidate

Akshay Bhatia & JT Poston (Both 45 to 1)

Both chosen for strategic early tee times. While performance stats weren’t elaborated, their selection is driven by:

• Tee Time: Early start likely offering better conditions

• Silent Confidence: Essler hints these are smart, condition-based plays

Course Conditions & Strategy

Muirfield Village Breakdown

The course is notorious for its:

• Small greens: Demands strong short-game skills

• Scrambling importance: Players like Im and McCarthy gain an edge

• Weather: Morning tee times mean less wind and softer greens

Player Stats Snapshot

JJ Spahn – Odds: 45-1, Recent Result: 4th at Charles Schwab, Course Trend: Improving, Strengths: Balanced game, Tee Time: Early
Denny McCarthy – Odds: 45-1, Recent Result: 8th at PGA, Course Record: 2nd & 5th, Strengths: Day-one performer, Tee Time: Early
Keegan Bradley – Odds: 45-1, Recent Result: 8th at PGA, Strengths: Approach play, Tee Time: Late
Sungjae Im – Odds: 50-1, Form: Fatigued then rested, Strengths: Scrambling and putting, Tee Time: Late
Akshay Bhatia – Odds: 45-1, Key Factor: Tee time, Tee Time: Early
JT Poston – Odds: 45-1, Key Factor: Tee time, Tee Time: Early

Final Thoughts

The Memorial Tournament’s first round will test both ball strikers and short-game specialists. Sleepy J and Dave Essler’s picks emphasize the value of course compatibility, recent form, and especially tee time strategy. Spahn and McCarthy stand out for their momentum and consistency, while riskier plays like Im and Bradley hinge on high upside despite timing drawbacks. With conditions favoring early starters, the smart money may lie in these calculated bets.