MLB Insight: Max Fried’s No-Hitter Controversy, Team Trends, and Betting Goldmines

Introduction

In episode 4 of The Inside Pitch with Josh Towers, Scott Seidenberg and former MLB pitcher Josh Towers dive deep into the Max Fried no-hitter controversy, dissect emerging MLB betting trends, and explore player psychology and performance analytics. This podcast, rich in tactical and statistical knowledge, offers a sharp perspective on what’s driving baseball in April 2025—from player mechanics to team betting goldmines.

 Max Fried’s No-Hitter: The Controversy That Changed Everything

Max Fried of the Yankees was on track for a historic no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays. With 7.2 innings of dominance, just 102 pitches, and only two walks and two strikeouts, Fried’s rhythm was suddenly shattered by an unexpected scoring change. A sixth-inning error on Paul Goldschmidt was reclassified as a hit two innings later—effectively nullifying the no-hitter before Fried stepped back on the mound in the 8th. This unprecedented mid-game revision caused confusion, stress, and almost immediately led to Fried surrendering a hit.

Josh Towers condemns this delay as unacceptable, arguing that decisions of this magnitude must be made immediately or not at all. The psychological impact on Fried, who likely sensed the achievement in sight, cannot be underestimated. The scorekeeper’s decision not only altered the game's narrative but potentially shifted managerial choices.

Understanding Pitch Count vs. Stress Count

Towers offers a masterclass in pitching strategy by separating raw pitch counts from “stress pitches.” While most modern teams pull pitchers based on counts around 100–110, Towers argues that the more crucial factor is stress per inning. An ideal “cruising” level is 13 pitches per inning (117 total), with 15 being manageable. If a pitcher is efficient and stress-free, even 120+ pitches may not be risky.

Fried, according to Towers, was in cruise control. He wasn't walking or striking out many, meaning fewer pitches per at-bat. Pulling such a pitcher too early would be illogical.

? Scorekeeper Bias and MLB Integrity

The hosts stress the need for impartiality in MLB’s scoring system. Home scorekeepers, they argue, are increasingly biased, with many calling hits on plays that would typically be ruled errors. They cite other examples—routine grounders ruled hits, or long reviews leading to reversed calls hours into the game.

Towers proposes that MLB must centralize or overhaul the scorekeeping process, especially during pivotal moments such as no-hitters or perfect games. He draws parallels to the Armando Galarraga incident and how “respecting the moment” should sometimes guide official decisions.

?? Jared Kelenic vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.: A Hustle Controversy

A major subplot in the episode involves the Braves' Jared Kelenic and Ronald Acuña Jr. When Kelenic assumed a home run, only to be thrown out at second base, Braves manager Brian Snitker downplayed the incident. Acuña, benched for a similar action six years ago, responded on social media, igniting debate about clubhouse consistency.

Towers criticizes both the Braves’ handling and Kelenic’s pattern of self-importance, recalling how hustle and humility were drilled into him by legends like Jim Thome. He argues that letting one player skate while punishing another undermines team unity.

 Betting Breakdown: Trends, Systems, and Surprises

First Five Betting Trends

• Orioles: 16-4-1 to the First Five Over

• Mets: 17-5 to the First Five Under

• Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers also trending Over early

These data points signal not only strategy for bettors but deeper team trends. The Orioles, for instance, are scoring early but hemorrhaging runs due to a weak starting rotation (ERA leaders: Sugano, Morton, Povich all > 6.00).

Home Favorites Dominate

• Home favorites are winning at 67%

• Top teams: Padres (10-0), Rangers (8-0), Mets (9-1)

• Betting every home favorite ($100) = $4,226 profit

Josh and Scott underscore that blindly backing home favorites with strong bullpen/starting pitching is one of the most profitable systems this season.

Player Mechanics and Micro Adjustments

One highlight is Christopher Sanchez’s subtle mechanical change—shifting his front foot slightly inward. This minor tweak added extension, closed his upper body, and led to improved spin and downward break. The result? Enhanced command and a breakout start to the season.

Pete Alonso also gets praise for off-season adjustments, cleaning up his swing and launching into a hot start. These stories illustrate how small changes in form yield major performance leaps at the highest level.

 Josh Towers' Power Rankings

1. Dodgers – Elite depth, consistent across all facets

2. Padres – Balanced attack, improving health

3. Phillies – Rotation strong, bullpen shaky

4. Mets – Dominant bullpen, offensive chemistry

5. Rangers – Home dominance, gritty play

Towers excludes the Yankees, citing inconsistency despite their record. He emphasizes bullpen efficiency and mental edge over raw wins.

 Final Thoughts

Episode 4 of The Inside Pitch blends elite-level analysis with digestible betting takeaways and philosophical debates. From Fried’s denied history to Acuña’s frustration, from Orioles overs to Mets unders, this episode proves that baseball is played just as much in the mind as on the field.

The insight into pitching philosophy, clubhouse culture, and betting data makes it a must-listen for both bettors and baseball purists.