Major League Baseball on Monday night and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants, which will be played at AT&T Park in San Francisco. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:15 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on the locally.
Betting Odds
Pirates -135
Giants +125
Over/ Under: 6.5 -110
This is game 1 of a 3 game series between these National League foes. Pittsburgh comes in a bit hot as they have won 8 of their last 10 games, but are still 7 games behind the division leading St Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. The Giants were running hot, but they lost their last 2 games vs the Braves, which allowed the Dodgers to retake 1st place in the NL West by a half a game. The Pirates rank 16th in scoring (4.16 rpg), while on the mound they are 2nd in ERA (3.04). San Francisco ranks 18th in scoring (4.12 rpg), while on the mound they are 11th in ERA (3.71).
Trend for this game include: The Pirates have gone 26-9 in their last 35 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 24-8 in Cole's last 32 starts as a favorite, but just 1-5 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Giants have gone 17-4 in their last 21 vs. the NL Central and 11-4 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter, but just 4-11 in Vogelsong's last 15 starts with 4 days of rest.
Getting the ball for Pirates tonight will be Gerrit Cole, who is 7-2 on the year with a very nice 2.11 ERA. On the road he as gone 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 5 starts. Cole has faced the Giants twice in his career and he is 2-0 with a 3.14 ERA in those starts.
Taking the hill for San Francisco tonight will be Ryan Vogelsong, who has gone 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts this year, while at home he is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in 3 starts. Ryan is 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Buccos.
Pick: I will go with the Under in this game. Gerrit Cole has been very solid for Pittsburgh this year and he seems to be getting better as he enters this game with a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. Ryan Vogelsong has a 1.35 ERA at home this year and a career 3.29 ERA at AT&T park, despite the fact that he is just 21-21 in this park. He also comes in with a very nice 1.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Giants have a winning record at home despite the fact that they score just 3.22 rpg in this park. Allot of low scoring games here and I feel this one will be another one.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.