Thursday major league baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers, which will be played at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Los Angeles -310
Over/ Under: 7 U -125
This is game 4 of a 4 game series between these National League foes. Last night the Dodgers got a masterful pitching performance from Clayton Kershaw in the 5-0 win. It was his last ditch effort to impress voters for a spot on the All-Star team and he delivered. The Dodgers have now take 2 of 3 in this series and they have increased their lead in the NL West to 5 games over both the D-Backs and Giants. The Phils are far and away the worst team in baseball as they are 29-58 overall, including a paltry 11-33 on the road. The Dodgers have gone a very solid 30-16 at home for the year. The Phils rank 30th in scoring (3.44 rpg), while on the mound they are 29th in ERA (4.64). LA ranks 13th in scoring (4.21 rpg), while on the mound they are 4th in ERA (3.34).
Trend for this game include: The Phils have gone 13-38 in their last 51 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 9-36 in their last 45 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater, while the Dodgers have gone 20-5 in Greinke's last 25 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 amd 40-12 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -201 or greater.
Getting the ball for Philadelphia tonight will be Serevino Gonzalez, who is 3-2 with an 8.28 ERA in 6 starts this year, while on the road he is 2-1 with a 6.88 ERA. He has yet to face he Dodgers in his career.
Toeing the rubber for the Dodgers tonight will be Zack Greinke, who is 7-2 with a 1.48 ERA overall this year, while at home his has gone 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA. Zack has a current scoreless streak of 27.67 innings going. He is 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 6 games (5 starts) in his career vs the Dodgers.
Pick: Going with the Under in this game. Zack Greinke has been awesome for the Dodgers ad he hasn't allowed a run in 4 straight starts and he has a 1.48 ERA overall, including a 1.64 ERA at home. Last night with Kershaw on the mound the Phils were shutout and most likely will be here as well. That means the LA offense doesn't have to do much. Last night they jumped out to the 5-0 lead after 2 innings and then shut it down the rest of the night, knowing that the Phils offense was going to do very little in that game. The Dodgers have averaged just 3.3 rpg for Zack in his home starts this year, so he does get little run support from his mates. I don't see them getting a ton here even though Severino Gonzalez has really struggled for the Phils this year. This has the feel of another 5-0 type game here.
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MLB Betting Strategy: Don't Snub All-Star Pitching Snubs
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