Major League Baseball on Saturday night and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks, which will be played at Chase Field in Arizona. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on the locally.
New York +106
Over/ Under: 9 U -120
This is game 3 of a 4 game series between these National League foes. The Mets come in slumping a bit as they have lost3 of their last 4 games. They have really struggled on the road this year, where they are just 9-18, but still they are just a half agame behind the Nats for first place in the East. The DBacks have won 3 of their last 4, but still are 2 games under .500 for the year and they are also just 14-15 at home so far. The Mets rank 24th in scoring (3.79 rpg), while on the mound they are 5th in ERA (3.44). Arizona ranks 2nd in scoring (4.80 rpg), while on the mound they are 26th in ERA (4.32).
Trend for this game include: New York is 8-2 in Colon's last 10 road starts, but just 3-13 in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The DBacks have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, but just 1-8 in Anderson's last 9 starts and 7-23 in their last 30 during game 3 of a series.
Getting the ball for New York tonight will be Bartolo Colon, who has gone 8-3 with a 4.72 ERA overall, while on the road he is 3-1 with a 4.21 ERA. Bartolo has faced the Diamondbacks just once in has career and he is 0-0 with a 6.35 ERA in that start.
Taking the hill for the Arizona tonight will be Chase Anderson, who is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 10 starts this year overall, while at home he has gone 0-1 with a 3.70 ERA in 4 starts. Chase has never faced the Mets in his career.
Pick: I will look to the Under in this game. This one will feature a better pitching matchup that yesterday and that game saw just 5 totals runs scored till the bottom of the 8th. Colon is due to have another solid outing, while Anderson has pitched very well this year in his starts. The Mets still score around just 3 rpg at home and they will not get enough in this game to put it over the total.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.