The Big Ten and the SEC square off in the 28th annual Outback Bowl this afternoon, as the Iowa Hawkeyes take on the 14th-ranked LSU Tigers at Raymond James Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN and has a start time of 1:00 pm (Eastern). Current odds have LSU listed as 7.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 48.5.
Analysis: The Iowa Hawkeyes come in at 8-4 of the year, and they have been on a roll down the stretch, winning their last 3 in a row, which includes wins over Michigan and Nebraska. Iowa is 6-2 ATS in its past eight bowl games and the Hawkeyes were tough on the road this year, going 5-0 ATS away from home in 2013. Offensively this is a pretty weak ball club as they come in ranked 81st in total offense putting up just 389 ypg. The do run the ball well, ranking 41st in the nation, but they are also 94th in passing and 74th in scoring, averaging just 27.3 ppg. Defensively is where this team has shined this year as they come in ranked 7th in total defense, 11th vs the pass, 17th vs the run and 11th in points allowed, giving up just 18.8 ppg.
For the Tigers, they have had a solid year, going 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the SEC. They finished the year with BB wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas, but really didn't play all that well vs the Hogs, winning by just 4 points as 28 point favorites. LSU has been criticized over the years for being all defense and no offense, but this year the Tigers have been solid on both sides of the ball. The Tigers offense has been much better than in years past, as they come in ranked 26th overall, putting up 465.9 ypg. Zach Mettenberger has had a very nice year and has helped the Tigers rank 33rd in the nation in passing, which has led them to putting up 37 ppg (21st). Defensively this is always a tough bunch and while they had some rough spots this year, they still allowed just 200.8 ypg passing (17th) and 22.1 ppg (31st).
Pick: The OU line is a bit low here, so I will go with the OVER. LSU has opened up this offense and it has led to 37 ppg. They have scored on some very tough SEC defenses and should be able to put up points on this tough Iowa defense. The Iowa offense is not that explosive, but LSU did allow 26 points or more in all 5 of their games away from home this year. This has the feel of a 31-24 type game.
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