Thursday College Basketball Betting Pick: Kennesaw State vs. New Mexico State

Introduction

In this college basketball breakdown, expert Dave Essler provides his betting pick for the matchup between Kennesaw State and New Mexico State. His focus is on the total points staying under 136.5, based on a combination of historical trends, team styles, and defensive efficiency. Below, we analyze the key insights that support his prediction.

Game Analysis

Historical Matchups Favor the Under

• These teams faced off twice during the regular season, with final scores of 125 and 109 total points.
• Both results were well under the 136.5-point line, indicating a consistent trend of low-scoring games.
• Essler emphasizes that past matchups provide a strong indicator of how this game is likely to unfold.

Pace of Play Will Dictate the Outcome

• New Mexico State prefers a slow, deliberate offense, often walking the ball up the court.
• Kennesaw State wants to play fast, but a neutral court setting typically favors the slower-paced team.
• Historically, in similar neutral-site matchups, the team that dictates the tempo often controls the total points outcome.

New Mexico State’s Offensive Struggles

• New Mexico State has one of the weakest offenses in Conference USA, further reinforcing the under bet.
• While Kennesaw State has turnover issues, New Mexico State does not capitalize on turnovers with fast-break points, reducing the likelihood of easy scoring opportunities.
• A slow-paced game with limited transition points makes it harder for both teams to exceed the total.

Strong Defensive Efficiency

• New Mexico State ranks 1st in defensive efficiency within the conference.
• Kennesaw State ranks 3rd, showing they also prioritize defense.
• When two top defensive teams face off, scoring opportunities are naturally limited, making the under a strong play.

Is the 136.5 Total Too High?

• Essler questions whether the 136.5-point total is purely based on analytics, without considering real-game factors.
• He argues that historical trends, pace of play, and defensive efficiency provide a clearer picture than just data-driven projections.

Bonus Bet: First Half Under

• Essler doubles down on the first-half under, believing that a slow start is likely due to:
  • Neutral court adjustments
  • Defensive intensity from both teams
  • New Mexico State’s deliberate offensive approach

Final Prediction: Bet the Under 136.5

 Key Supporting Factors:
  Historical matchups show low totals
  New Mexico State plays at a slow pace
  One of the worst offenses in Conference USA
  Both teams rank high in defensive efficiency
  Neutral court setting favors a slower game

 Potential Risks:
 ? Late-game fouls and free throws could push the total higher
 ? Overtime could cause the under to lose

 Essler’s Additional Bet:
  First-half under – A slow start makes this an even stronger play.

For bettors looking to make an informed wager, Essler’s under 136.5 pick presents a statistically supported and strategically sound choice based on team tendencies and past performances.