?‍?? Dave Essler Hits Big: Keith Mitchell Delivers 45-1 FRL Victory

At the Truist Championship, expert bettor Dave Essler made a bold prediction: Keith Mitchell would finish as the First Round Leader (FRL). At 45 to 1 odds, it was a longshot that turned into a massive payout for those who followed his insight. This article breaks down how Dave’s analysis nailed the pick, why it worked, and what it means for value-driven golf betting.

 The Pick That Paid: Keith Mitchell at 45 to 1

In his pre-tournament breakdown, Dave Essler highlighted Mitchell as a live FRL candidate—not necessarily a four-day winner, but someone who could explode on Thursday:

• Recent Form: 12th at Valero, 2nd at Punta Cana (split field)

• FedEx Cup Ranking: Sitting near 70th, the cut line for playoff qualification under the new format

• Course Fit: Shorter yardage suited Mitchell's tee-to-green game

• X-Factor: “If he can putt well, he can go low.” And he did.

Mitchell delivered a sharp opening round that placed him alone atop the leaderboard—cashing the 45-1 ticket.

 Why It Worked: Smart Betting Strategy

This was not just a lucky shot—it was informed, value-oriented handicapping. Dave didn’t aim for the outright winner; instead, he played a niche market with huge upside:

• Limited risk: Modest stake, massive return

• Focused criteria: Recent form, urgency (FedEx points), and putting volatility

• Market inefficiency: The public often overlooks middle-tier names like Mitchell

The FRL market offers a sweet spot for betting sharpness, and this win proves it.

Analytical Breakdown of the Winning Call

Here’s what Dave said in the original segment:

“He's playing too well not to. I don’t think he can win, but if he can putt well, he can go low.”

He also pointed to the dry conditions helping roll off the tee, adding even more confidence in Mitchell’s potential to gain strokes early.

 The Aftermath: Celebrating a Major Hit

For those who followed the pick:

• A $100 bet returned $4,500

• One round of golf delivered week-making profit

• Validation of Pregame’s sharp FRL methodology

This win also solidifies Dave Essler’s reputation as a premier voice in tournament betting, particularly in first-round props.

 Team Pregame’s Full FRL Card

Dave Essler:

•  Keith Mitchell (45 to 1) – WINNER

• Tommy Fleetwood (30 to 1)

• Denny McCarthy (45 to 1)

Sleepy J:

• Justin Thomas (25 to 1)

Four strong picks. One glorious payout.

 Final Word: Thursday Heroes Matter

“You don’t need to win the whole event—just Day 1.” That’s the FRL betting creed. With the PGA Tour shifting formats and increasing volatility, smart, targeted, round-based props offer unique opportunities. And when preparation meets opportunity—like it did for Dave and Keith Mitchell—you get results.