As the NFL season enters Week 4, Thursday Night Football will feature a classic NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. Both teams come into the game with plenty of questions about their performances, and sports bettors are closely analyzing every aspect of the matchup. With line movements, player performance, and betting trends all in play, this article will break down the key factors you need to consider for this pivotal game.

Setting the Stage: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Cowboys, despite their strong roster, have had a slow start this season. One of the most notable storylines revolves around their star wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, who skipped preseason and training camp, only to publicly apologize for his slow start. Lamb’s performance has been underwhelming, but Mackenzie Rivers pointed out on Straight Outta Vegas that the Cowboys' problems go deeper than just their offense. The real issue lies in the team’s defense, which has been allowing an alarming amount of rushing yards. In their first three games, the Cowboys gave up more than 200 rushing yards per game, a glaring weakness that teams like the Giants will likely look to exploit.

On the other side, the Giants have reason for cautious optimism after securing a win last week. Although their overall record isn't impressive, the victory provided a morale boost. However, Scott Seidenberg emphasized that the Giants’ win was more about the weakness of their opponent than an indication of the team’s strength. He stated, “The Cowboys are more of a downgrade than the Giants are an upgrade.” Despite their win, the Giants still have plenty of areas they need to improve.

Key Betting Trends: Underdogs on the Rise

One of the most interesting trends so far in the NFL season is the performance of six-point underdogs. Teams getting six or more points have gone 12-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, with eight of those teams winning outright. The Giants are six-point underdogs heading into this matchup, which could make them an appealing choice for bettors looking to capitalize on this trend. Bettors may be tempted to take the Giants to cover the spread or even win outright, given how frequently underdogs have been outperforming expectations this season.

Despite this, Steve Fezzik cautions against betting on the money line in such scenarios, particularly when the bid-ask spread is large. For instance, in this game, bettors would be looking at a -230 money line on the Cowboys, but only getting +195 back if they bet on the Giants. Fezzik points out that when the numbers are this far apart, there’s usually no profitable play to be made. Instead, he advises bettors to focus on the spread, especially given the movement in favor of the Cowboys.

The line opened at -4.5 in favor of the Cowboys but has since moved to -6, a shift that many analysts now view as overvalued. The general consensus is that if you liked the Cowboys at -4.5, you should have taken that bet earlier, as the current line doesn’t offer the same value. Rivers highlighted that the best approach may be to bet on individual player performances, particularly targeting Devin Singletary, who could take advantage of the Cowboys’ weak run defense.

Breaking Down the Player and Team Statistics

The Cowboys’ defensive struggles are a major point of concern for anyone considering betting on them. In their last two games, Dallas allowed a combined six rushing touchdowns—four to Alvin Kamara and two to Derrick Henry. These numbers don’t bode well for a team that is already underperforming on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants will likely try to exploit this weakness by leaning on their star running back, Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been one of the few bright spots for New York this season, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. If he can get going early, it could be a long night for the Cowboys’ defense.

The Giants have their own struggles, particularly at the quarterback position. Daniel Jones has been historically poor in prime-time games, with a 1-13 straight-up record and a 5-9 ATS record. At home, the numbers are even worse, as he’s 0-6 straight-up in night games. These stats don’t inspire confidence, but as Seidenberg pointed out, this is a division rivalry, and anything can happen. Historically, the Cowboys have had the upper hand in this matchup, boasting a 23-9 ATS record against NFC East teams and a 10-4 ATS record against the Giants specifically. The Cowboys are also 5-1 ATS when playing at New York, making them a difficult opponent in this setting.

Dak Prescott, the Cowboys’ quarterback, is still finding his footing after a challenging offseason. While some of Prescott’s struggles can be attributed to poor offensive line play, the bigger issue is the Cowboys’ defense. Prescott has shown flashes of his old form but has yet to put together a complete game this season. Lamb, who has admitted to underperforming, could be primed for a bounce-back game, particularly against a Giants secondary that has been far from elite. But as Rivers emphasized, neither Prescott nor Lamb are entirely to blame for the Cowboys’ woes—it’s their inability to stop the run that could spell trouble in this game.

Line Movement and Betting Insights

Line movement can often provide key insights into where the sharp money is going, and this game is no exception. The Cowboys opened as five-point favorites during the summer, but the line has since shifted to -6, indicating that public sentiment is still in favor of Dallas, despite their shaky performances. However, Fezzik questions whether this line movement accurately reflects the current state of both teams. He argues that moving the line from -4.5 to -6 is an overreaction, particularly given the Cowboys’ recent struggles.

For bettors looking to back the Giants, the inflated line could present an opportunity. Fezzik believes the Giants are a “live dog” in this matchup, particularly given the current line. He even suggested that bettors should take a closer look at Devin Singletary’s rushing props, as the Cowboys have consistently allowed running backs to gash them for big gains. Bettors looking for value might also want to explore the Giants' team total, which could offer more favorable odds than the current spread or money line.

Prop Bets: Finding Value in Player Performances

For those who prefer prop bets, this game offers several intriguing options. Devin Singletary is one of the more appealing choices, given the Cowboys’ inability to stop the run. Rivers recommended betting on a touchdown ladder for Singletary, where you can wager on him to score one touchdown, two touchdowns, or more. This kind of bet allows you to scale your risk and reward, depending on how dominant you believe Singletary will be.

Another prop worth considering is CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards. Despite his slow start, Lamb remains Prescott’s top target, and the Giants' defense has struggled to contain elite receivers this season. If the Cowboys are able to establish a passing game early, Lamb could be in for a big night. Betting on Lamb to surpass certain yardage milestones (e.g., 50 yards, 75 yards, or even 100 yards) could provide solid returns for bettors looking to capitalize on his potential resurgence.

What’s the Best Bet?

Given the current state of both teams, the safest bet may be to take the Giants to cover the spread. The Cowboys, while more talented on paper, have significant defensive issues that make them a risky bet at -6. If the line had stayed closer to -4.5, Dallas might have been a more attractive option, but as it stands, the Giants offer more value as underdogs.

In addition to the spread, prop bets on Devin Singletary and CeeDee Lamb provide intriguing options for bettors looking to diversify their wagers. Singletary, in particular, could have a big game against a Cowboys defense that has been consistently weak against the run.

Final Thoughts

Thursday Night Football between the Cowboys and Giants promises to be an exciting matchup with plenty of betting opportunities. Whether you’re interested in betting on the spread, the money line, or individual player props, there’s something for every type of bettor in this game. Keep an eye on the line movement, study the player performances, and don’t be afraid to take a shot on some under-the-radar prop bets. Whatever your betting strategy, this game is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 4.