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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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Friday College Football Utah State Aggies vs BYU Cougars Free PIck

Week 6 college football and the Utah State Aggies will travel to Provo, Utah to take on the BYU Cougars. The game has a start time of 10:15 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have the Cougars listed as 20.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 50.5.  

Analysis:  Utah State comes into this game at 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS so far this year. They are 5-1 ATS the last 6 in this series and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 trips to Provo. Let us also note that the Aggies are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a dogs of 5 or more. The Aggies have once again dealt with injuries at the QB spot as Chuckie Keeton missed their last game with a knee injury and is questionable for this one. Last year he missed half the year and may not have been fully healthy when in there this year, as he has hit just 55.4% of his passes for 426 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs on the year so far. In the game vs Arkansas State, Darrell Garretson played in place of Keeton and threw for 268 yards with 2 TDs and a pick in the 21-14 OT loss to the Red Wolves. The Aggies come in 97th in total offense (368.8 ypg) and 96th in scoring (24.4 ppg), while on defense they are 32nd in yards allowed (334.8 ypg) and 70th in points allowed (25.8 ppg).

The BYU Cougars come in at 4-0 on the year and have been thought of by many as having a chance to crack the 4 team playoff at the end of the year, especially considering their schedule. Let’s also note that the Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs the Mountain West Conference. The Cougars were pushed a little in their last game vs Virginia, in which they won 41-33. The Cougars were outgained 519-332, outfirstdowned 35-16 and they committed 12 penalties for 133 yards in the game. With a week off you should see a more focused BYU squad in this game. The Cougars come in ranked 52nd in total offense (450.2 ypg) and 39th in scoring (37.5 ppg). Taysom Hill has thrown for 8876 yards and 6 TDs on the year, but also leads them in rushing with 428 yards and 7 more TDs. The struggled vs Virginia, but still they rank 25th in the league in points allowed, giving up just 18.8 ppg.   

Pick: Going with the under in this game. First off the Aggies have no Chuckie Keeton in this one and will be hard pressed to put up many points on an angry BYU defense that allowed 33 points to Virginia in their last game. BYU also had the week off to fix their defense from that game so they should be ready here vs an offense that will not be as explosive as if they had Keeton in there. Even with Keeton in there the Aggies have not been all that good as they have averaged just 24.8 ppg on the year so far. The BYU offense is very good, but also more of a running offense and that will chew up plenty of clock. We also note that the Utah State defense comes in having allowed just 78 ypg on the ground this year, which is 4th in the nation. Theses Friday night games have been very low scoring for BYU, as 15 of their last 16 games on Friday night have gone Under the total and that includes this year’s opener vs Uconn, which put up just 45 points. I expect that to continue here as well.      

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