Major League Baseball on Friday night and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres, which will be played at Petco Park in San Diego. First pitch is scheduled for a 10:10 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on the locally.
Betting Odds
Pirates +102
Padres -112
Over/ Under: 6 O -125
This is game 2 of a 4 game series between these National League foes. The Pirates took game 1 of this series last night, beating the Padres by an 11-5 score. The Pirates have now won 7 games in a row, but are still in 3rd pace in the NL Central, 6 games behind the Cardinals. The San Diego Padres have not had a good year so far as they are just 23-26 so far, which has them in 3rd place in the NL West.
The Pirates rank 15th in scoring (4.26 rpg), 15th in hitting (.253) and 17th in homers (42), while on the mound they are 2nd in ERA (3.03) and 8th in WHIP (1.23). The Pirates are 50-20 in their last 70 vs. a team with a losing record and 36-17 in their last 53 games following a win, but just 2-8 in Liriano's last 10 starts.
San Diego ranks 14th in scoring (4.29 rpg), 17th in hitting (.247) and 21st in homers (40) while on the mound they are 20th in ERA (4.17) and 20th in WHIP (1.32). The Padres are 27-9 in their last 36 games as a home favorite and 40-17 the last 57 in this series, but just 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Getting the ball for Pirates tonight will be Francisco Liriano, who is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA overall this year, while on the road he has gone 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 4 starts. Liriano has 4 career starts vs the Padres and he has gone 1-2 with a 2.42 ERA in those starts, while at Petco he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 2 starts.
Taking the hill for San Diego tonight will be James Shields, who is a perfect 6-0 on the year with a 3.75 ERA, while at home he has gone 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA. James has never faced the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he has gone 15-9 with a 4.07 ERA in 33 career starts vs the National League.
Pick: I will be going with the Over in this game. Petco Park has been known for low scoring games over the year, but this season it has been a much different story as Padre home game have averaged a healthy 9.21 rpg. This is a park that was averaging under 7 rpg the last few years. Tonight their is a solid pitching matchup, but Liriano is far from Perfect and Shields does have an ERA north of 3 on this field this year. We also note that Pittsburgh has averaged 6.57 rpg during their win streak, while San Diego has averaged 5.6 rpg in their last 5 games. The teams put up 16 runs last night and I just don't see how these teams can't put up at least 3 runs each here. I look for 8 or 9 runs in this one.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.