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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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Free Super Bowl Picks and Tips

This Super Bowl is indeed a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl played in Arizona between these teams, but underneath there are more differences than similarities. Of course the head coaches and the quarterbacks remain the same, but beyond that much has changed in four short years. Gone is the architect of the Giants defense, coordinator Steve Spaguolono. Gone is the architect of the New England record-setting defense, Josh McDaniels. Yes, he has been hired to replace Bill O'Brien who is leaving for Penn State, but how much that effects THIS game remains to be seen. This writer says very little and we go over our free Super Bowl Picks and Tips.
In that 2007 game it was probably the New England arrogance that got the better of them. I can distinctly remember Tom Brady replying to Michael Strahan that the Patriots "were only going to score 17 points" with a bit of a "we'll see about that" attitude. As fate would have it, New England scored 17 points. In that game it was New England, who is know for making adjustments, that just appeared to get schooled by Spagnuolo and the Giants defense. They played the entire game thinking that they'd do the same thing and get different results, play after play after play. The definition of insanity that ultimately cost them the game.
This time around it seems so far that neither team is doing much talking, although they both know not only what's at stake, but what the ramifications of winning and/or losing will mean to both franchises, the quarterbacks, and the coaches.
This time around, it's the New England offense that's simply got a ton more weapons than they did in 2007. Back then it was easy for New York to take Randy Moss and Wes Welker out of the game. There were no Gronkowski's or Hernandez's. Back then it was the Giants that had little known wide receivers that New England appeared to take for granted other than Plaxico Burress. There is no Steve Smith.
In this game, it's the Giants with the talented and deep wideouts against a relatively weak New England secondary. And it's Eli Manning with little or nothing to lose, not Tom Brady, who even with his three Super Bowl rings is the one that's under the bigger microscope. Although it's the Patriots who are the listed favorite by three points, you almost get that feel like it's New York that's approaching this game as if it's theirs to lose. The KNOW they can move the ball on New England, having already done it THIS year and IN Foxborough. It's New England that THINKS they can move the ball on the Giants defense. They couldn't in Foxborough this season, and again, it may well have been their over-confidence. They surely won't go into this game with that same mindset, nor the one they approached the 2007 game with either.
It's the Giants who must have all the confidence in the world. Who wouldn't with Victor Cruz going against Julian Edleman. No disrespect to Julian, but he is after all a wide receiver turned punt returner turned safety! And if the Broncos can run on New England, how sure must New York be that they can run on New England?
In this years' game, I honestly doubt they'll be the usual and customary feeling out process for the first quarter or so. Points may not be hard to come by for either side so there shouldn't be many "let's see what they do" possessions. With that in mind, we don't see another 17-14 game. In fact, this could be one of the highest scoring games in Super Bowl history, perhaps even eclipsing the mark that San Francisco and San Diego set (75) in 1995.
So, yes, it's the same two teams playing that met in Glendale back in 2007. And the Giants come in having been a Wild Card team again. New England comes in having had the number one seed, again. But that's where the similarities end. And in these games, not unlike the World Series, it's often times someone we never considered that makes the big play or has the big game. Will Ochocinco catch a touchdown pass that wins the game for New England? Or will it be Bear Pascoe that brings back memories of David Tyree? Whatever the outcome, there are certainly enough story lines leading up to kickoff that go well beyond "the rematch" that will quickly, if they haven't already, made people forget about Billy Cundiff and Kyle Williams, for which I am sure they are both eternally grateful.

Movie Superbowl Prop Betting Theory and Bets
Host Vegas Runner and Pregame Pro Bryan Leonard discuss general theory of prop betting and have your own number before the plays are out to beat the crowd.