Free College Football Picks for Colorado
at Ohio State (-15-) 3:30 PM EST ABC: The Buffs are 0-6 ATS away of late,
have an injured OL that has led to a ground game averaging just 90/2.9, and are
allowing too many sacks. Hardly
encouraging! But we want no part of
an Ohio State team that has fallen out of the Top 25 for the first time in 7
years. With just 8 RS and interim
HC Fickell, this team is a shell of its former self. After watching Toledo (a team who nearly beat Ohio State the
previous week in Columbus) get trashed by Boise on the Rockets strong home
field, I immediately elevated Miami (FL) to a Late Phone Play against this Ohio
State team. The Buckeyes responded
predictably in gaining just 209 yards.
Now, they are 1-2 ATS, covering against only bottom of the barrel Akron,
for a minus 21 AFP. Though this
line is obviously lower than it would have been last season, it is higher than
it would have been opening week.
The Buffs are no bargain, but we want no part of Ohio State this week.
Arkansas
at Alabama (-11-) 3:30 PM EST CBS: I’m well aware of the Arkansas success
in the last 2 seasons under 4th year HC Petrino. The Hogs are 21-8 SU, 18-9 ATS in that
time frame. Included is a recent
ATS run of 11-2. Again this season,
the results are lofty with a 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS start in which they have
outscored, outmanned foes 141-38.
Before you get too excited, please note those were all at home against
SWMO State, NM and Troy, 3 opponents against whom they were favored by over 100
points. The bottom line math is
just a plus 2 AFP. Now, they must
take to the road to face #3 Alabama, who owns arguably the Nations best
defense, a quickly emerging offense, and maturing QB McCarron already recording
an impressive road win at Penn State.
Please note the statistical profile which finds Alabama to be one of two
teams who is a member of both the Elite 200 Club and Defensive Dandies. This is a unit that has consistently
been among the best defenses in the nation. In fact, in the last 7 years they have allowed an average of
just 277 DYPG. With 10 RS to that
side of the ball, it is no wonder they are allowing just 6 PPG in 2011. Even more remarkable is their
consistent success in being on the plus side of the TO margin. In the previous 3 years, their plus 37
net turnover margin resulted in a net plus 206 AFP and 26-14 ATS record. That translates to outperforming the
line by over 5 pts/game. This
is the first road start for ARK QB Wilson this season. It won’t be pretty against this
defense.
Free Picks: Arkansas at Alabama Betting
What college football bettors need to know about Arkansas at Alabama(Saturday, September 24, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.