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Stories

Stories

Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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    06/23/2022 11:28 AM

Free College Football Picks: Colorado at Ohio State & Arkansas at Alabama



Free College Football Picks for Colorado at Ohio State (-15-) 3:30 PM EST ABC: 
The Buffs are 0-6 ATS away of late, have an injured OL that has led to a ground game averaging just 90/2.9, and are allowing too many sacks.  Hardly encouraging!  But we want no part of an Ohio State team that has fallen out of the Top 25 for the first time in 7 years.  With just 8 RS and interim HC Fickell, this team is a shell of its former self.  After watching Toledo (a team who nearly beat Ohio State the previous week in Columbus) get trashed by Boise on the Rockets strong home field, I immediately elevated Miami (FL) to a Late Phone Play against this Ohio State team.  The Buckeyes responded predictably in gaining just 209 yards.  Now, they are 1-2 ATS, covering against only bottom of the barrel Akron, for a minus 21 AFP.  Though this line is obviously lower than it would have been last season, it is higher than it would have been opening week.  The Buffs are no bargain, but we want no part of Ohio State this week.

Arkansas at Alabama (-11-) 3:30 PM EST CBS: I’m well aware of the Arkansas success in the last 2 seasons under 4th year HC Petrino.  The Hogs are 21-8 SU, 18-9 ATS in that time frame.  Included is a recent ATS run of 11-2.  Again this season, the results are lofty with a 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS start in which they have outscored, outmanned foes 141-38.  Before you get too excited, please note those were all at home against SWMO State, NM and Troy, 3 opponents against whom they were favored by over 100 points.  The bottom line math is just a plus 2 AFP.  Now, they must take to the road to face #3 Alabama, who owns arguably the Nations best defense, a quickly emerging offense, and maturing QB McCarron already recording an impressive road win at Penn State.  Please note the statistical profile which finds Alabama to be one of two teams who is a member of both the Elite 200 Club and Defensive Dandies.  This is a unit that has consistently been among the best defenses in the nation.  In fact, in the last 7 years they have allowed an average of just 277 DYPG.  With 10 RS to that side of the ball, it is no wonder they are allowing just 6 PPG in 2011.  Even more remarkable is their consistent success in being on the plus side of the TO margin.  In the previous 3 years, their plus 37 net turnover margin resulted in a net plus 206 AFP and 26-14 ATS record.  That translates to outperforming the line by over 5 pts/game.   This is the first road start for ARK QB Wilson this season.  It won’t be pretty against this defense.  

Movie Free Picks: Arkansas at Alabama Betting
What college football bettors need to know about Arkansas at Alabama(Saturday, September 24, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.