Comprehensive MLB Wednesday Playoff Predictions: Key Matchups, Stats, and Best Bets

In this episode of RJ Bell’s Dream Preview, hosts Manaf Manji and Griffin Warner dive into detailed predictions and best bets for four crucial MLB playoff games happening on Wednesday. The episode provides insightful analysis of each series, player statistics, and betting strategies to help listeners make informed wagers. Covering everything from pitcher matchups to team momentum, the co-hosts break down the key factors likely to influence the outcomes.

Episode Overview

[0:09 - 0:51]
Manaf Manji opens the episode by explaining the scheduling adjustment for this week’s podcast, which allowed them to focus on all four series in action on Wednesday. The excitement of postseason baseball is palpable, and Manaf promises valuable insights into the matchups for the day.

Orioles vs. Royals Recap

[1:09 - 1:26]
Manaf revisits Griffin’s successful prediction from the Orioles vs. Royals series, where Griffin advised betting the under, noting no overs occurred during the series. The Royals’ pitching dominated, limiting the Orioles to only three runs throughout the series, advancing Kansas City comfortably. Griffin’s pick of the under was, as Manaf describes, "sweat-free."

• Key Takeaway: Royals' pitching strength was a key factor in their series win.

General Playoff Trends: Home Field and Umpires

[2:55 - 4:06]
Griffin emphasizes that all four series are tied 1-1, indicating that home-field advantage has not played a significant role. He highlights the absence of extra-innings games and points out how umpires are calling more strikes, favoring betting the under. With the heightened pressure of the playoffs, Griffin suggests that scoring has been tough across many matchups, and home-field advantage will become more critical as the series progress.

• Key Insight: Umpires calling tighter strike zones make runs harder to come by, boosting under bets in these tight playoff games.

Guardians vs. Tigers (Game 3 Preview)

[4:54 - 9:48]
This game features Alex Cobb starting for the Cleveland Guardians against the Detroit Tigers, who are expected to rely on a bullpen strategy led by Bo Brisky. Both teams are tied 1-1 in the series, and Griffin expresses concern over Cobb's long layoff from postseason baseball, with his last playoff start occurring in 2013. Griffin believes Detroit’s bullpen will outperform Cleveland’s over the course of the game, especially under the leadership of seasoned manager AJ Hinch, compared to Cleveland’s rookie manager Stephen Vogt.

Manaf notes that while Cobb is talented, his long gap between meaningful postseason appearances could be a disadvantage. Griffin points out that Detroit’s bullpen games have been successful, and Manaf agrees, citing the Tigers' timely hitting and Hinch’s playoff experience as major factors in their favor.

• Best Bet: Griffin leans toward the Tigers on the moneyline.
• Pitcher Stats: Alex Cobb hasn’t pitched in a postseason game in over 4,000 days, and Detroit has performed well in bullpen games this season.

Phillies vs. Mets (Game 4 Preview)

[11:35 - 17:25]
In a pivotal Game 4, the Mets are looking to close out the series against the Phillies. Jose Quintana starts for the Mets, with Ranger Suarez pitching for the Phillies. Griffin reflects on Quintana’s surprising season, where he has consistently outperformed expectations, and predicts that Quintana will likely go deep into the game. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez, though talented, could struggle under the pressure of an elimination game.

Both hosts praise Quintana's performance during the regular season, specifically against the Phillies. In three appearances, he posted a 2.81 ERA, while Suarez maintained a 2.31 ERA against the Mets in his three starts. Despite the strong pitching, Griffin argues that the Mets are playing with a lot of confidence and are one win away from advancing to the NLCS. He prefers the Mets at even money, with Manaf agreeing that the under in the first five innings is a smart bet given both pitchers’ solid records.

• Key Betting Insight: Both hosts agree on betting the under 4 runs in the first five innings. They also favor the Mets to win due to their momentum and bullpen strength.

Yankees vs. Royals (Game 3 Preview)

[17:26 - 22:16]
The Yankees and Royals are tied 1-1 as they head into Game 3. The Yankees will start Clark Schmidt, while the Royals will rely on Seth Lugo. Griffin casts doubt on the Yankees’ chances, questioning Schmidt’s ability to handle a playoff game after an injury-riddled season. He also mentions the Yankees’ reliance on home runs, which may be problematic in Kansas City’s pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Manaf points to Aaron Judge’s poor postseason performance, highlighting his high strikeout rate. Both hosts agree that the Royals' offense is heating up at the right time, making them a strong home underdog to bet on. Griffin notes that while Seth Lugo has been inconsistent, the Royals' ability to apply pressure with baserunning and small-ball tactics may give them the edge.

• Key Betting Insight: Both lean toward the Royals as a home underdog and also favor the under 8 runs total in the game.

Dodgers vs. Padres (Game 4 Preview)

[26:36 - 31:26]
With the Padres leading the series 2-1, they are on the verge of eliminating the Dodgers. Dylan Cease is set to start for San Diego, while the Dodgers will turn to Landon Knack. Griffin expresses concern about the Dodgers' depleted pitching staff, pointing out that Knack is in a tough spot against a strong Padres lineup. Cease struggled in his last outing against the Dodgers, but both Manaf and Griffin expect runs to come early and often in this matchup.

• Pitcher Matchups: Cease allowed five earned runs in his last start against the Dodgers, while Knack also gave up four earned runs in his recent start against the Padres. Both pitchers are expected to have short leashes.

The hosts agree that the game is likely to be high-scoring, with the Padres ultimately closing out the series. Griffin advises caution with the Padres’ -140 moneyline, preferring to focus on the over for total runs, particularly in the early innings.

• Key Betting Insight: Both recommend betting the over on runs in the first five innings, and while the Padres are favored, the line (-140) might be too steep for some bettors.

Best Bets for Wednesday

• Griffin’s Best Bet: Detroit Tigers on the moneyline, betting against Alex Cobb’s long layoff and favoring Detroit’s bullpen management at home.
• Manaf’s Best Bet: First five innings under 4 runs in the Phillies vs. Mets game, trusting both starters to keep scoring low early on.

Conclusion

[34:37 - 36:19]
Manaf and Griffin wrap up the episode by reflecting on their strong season-long betting performance, boasting a 62% win rate and +20.9 units. They thank their listeners for their support and encourage them to use the pregame.com promo code to get discounts on future picks. Both hosts express excitement for the remainder of the playoffs and promise to continue delivering expert analysis as the postseason progresses.