In the NFL Season Opener on Thursday, the Chiefs and Lions delivered a game that became a fascinating study in late-game decision-making, particularly in the context of win probabilities. With the clock ticking down to 2:09, Kansas City found themselves in a precarious fourth-and-25 situation. Dropped catches and penalties had already marred their drive, setting the stage for Patrick Mahomes to throw an incomplete pass downfield, seemingly a disastrous outcome for any hopes of a comeback.
The move - attempting a 25-yard fourth down rather than punting - seemed to defy conventional wisdom, a thought expressed by Pregame's own AJ Hoffman via Twitter.
After the failed attempt, the writing felt like it was on the wall. The Lions secured one first down which was enough to get them to Victory Formation on their next set of downs and begin the most highly anticipated season (by the Vegas markets) in Detroit Lions modern history with an upset win over the defending champions. But did it have to happen that way, or did the Chiefs miss out on a critical opportunity?
After the game, sports bettor Steve Rieder, known as @AvoidtheVig on Twitter/X, offered a compelling alternative strategy. Rieder suggests that the Chiefs should not have gone for the first down on 4th and 25, nor should they have punted. Instead, Rieder posits that the Chiefs should have intentionally stepped out of bounds at their own 9-yard line prior to the two-minute warning. This would cap the potential sets of downs for the Lions drive at only one - because they couldn't get a first down without scoring a touchdown and thus ending their drive.
As Rieder notes, this would have guaranteed that Kansas City would get the ball back - down only one score (unless Lions go for 2, a consideration for another day) - with approximately 90 seconds left on the clock. In Rieder's opinion, this should have been the go-to strategy, not a Hail Mary-type desperation event (however close the actual play ended up being to being a miraculous conversion).
Now, this strategy isn't without its challenges. Assuming the Chiefs score a touchdown—which is a big if, given their failed attempts in their final seven drives of the game—they'd still face the uncertainty of a two-point conversion and then an overtime. Since two-point conversions are roughly 50/50 scenarios - as are overtime games - we can assume there would be about a 50% chance the Chiefs would be successful in both cases, and thus even if we assume the Chiefs score the touchdown, the best-case scenario for winning, in that case, would sit around a 25% probability.
To examine the relative odds in this scenario, Pregame.com looked at historical data since 2012 for teams facing the predicament the Chiefs might have faced had they intentionally given the ball back to the Lions on the 9-yard line.
We queried NFL teams down by exactly 8 points, possessing the ball between the 18th and 33rd-yard lines, and with 1:10 to 1:55 left in the 4th quarter. 17 teams fit this scenario since 2012. On average, they had a Vegas Win probability of about 14% according to live odds. In practice, these teams have won 12.5% of the time, finishing the game 2-14-1 SU when faced with these difficult circumstances. Of these teams, notably, 12 of the 17 were able to score a touchdown on the drive. Of those 12, seven failed to score on the two-point conversion and lost the game by two, two more lost in overtime after tying the game, one tied after OT, and as mentioned two emerged victorious, both in overtime. Interestingly, one of those winning instances was Andy Reid's Chiefs with Alex Smith back in 2016.
In this analysis, it is essential to consider all the facets of the Chiefs' strategy during the game. The Lions gaining a first down essentially ended the game, but this doesn't necessarily indicate a flaw in the Chiefs' approach. The downside to giving the Lions the ball back at the 9-yard line is the increased likelihood of conceding a touchdown, which would put the Chiefs down by 8 points. This point becomes moot if the Chiefs manage a 3 and out, as getting the ball down by one point would obviously be more advantageous compared getting the ball down a minimum of four points.
In the real-world scenario, if the Chiefs fail to secure a 3 and out and allow a first down, the game is essentially over. However, in the scenario posed by Steve the odds remain long if they allow a touchdown and get the ball down by 8 points with about 90 seconds left on the clock.
When examining the historical data against ESPN's Win Percentage Model for what actually transpired in the game, the numbers tell an intriguing story. Right after Mahomes' incomplete pass resulted in a turnover on downs, the ESPN model still gave the Chiefs a 20% chance to win. Conversely, in the best-case scenario for Rieder's alternative strategy—assuming the Chiefs score a touchdown to end their drought—their win probability would max out at around 25%. If we give the Chiefs a rather generous 50% chance to score a touchdown with only 90 seconds remaining and no timeouts, their implied odds following Rieder's method would drop to 12.5%. This is notably lower than the 20% chance afforded to them in the situation that actually played out.
In the end, the Chiefs-Lions opener serves as a captivating study in the intricate dynamics of late-game decision-making and win probabilities. No single strategy can assure a win, but the game certainly opens the door for creative alternatives. NFL stands for Not For Long; the best coaches have challenged conventional wisdom and sought to find new ways to examine and utilize various statistical models and historical data points. Teams must also weigh potential psychological effects and other intangibles in the heat of gridiron battle. Such innovative thinking often pushes the boundaries of traditional thought, opting for out-of-the-box strategies that defy the norm. While it's not certain whether Rieder's proposal would have been the smarter move, the game presents a thought-provoking exercise that continues to fuel debate and exploration within the sports betting community.
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