Today the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will take on the UAB Blazers in the finals of the Conference USA Tournament which is taking place at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. The game has a start time of 3:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on Fox Sports 1. Current Vegas betting odds have the Blazers listed as 2 point favorites, while the total is set at 123.
Analysis: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders came in tho the Conference USA Tournament as the 6th seed and have played very well as they have won 3 very tight games in the tournament so far. MTSU has now won 4 in a row overall and is 19-15 on the year. MTSU has gone 5-1 ATS in the third game of a 3-in-5 days situation, but just 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games in the series. The Blue Raiders have been a poor offensive team this year, ranking 269th in scoring (63.8 ppg), 275th in shooting (41.5%), 119th in 3 point shooting (35.5%) and 119th in FT shooting (70.6%). Defensively MTSU has been solid this year, ranking 60th in points allowed (61.9 ppg), 206th in defensive FG% (43.6%) and 209th in 3 point defense (34.7%).
The UAB Blazers come in as the 5th seed of the Conference USA Tourney. They did not come into the tourney with momentum as they lost their last 2 regular season games, but they have put together BB wins over Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech to grab a spot in the finals. UAB is now 18-15 on the year and they do have the advantage of having this tournament being played in their home city. The Blazers have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games. The Blazers have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 142nd in scoring (65.0 ppg), 215th in shooting (42.7%), 243rd in 3 point shooting (32.7%) and 27th in FT shooting (74.2%). The defense for this team has note been that great this year, ranking 222nd in points allowed (67.9 ppg), 123rd in defensive FG% (42.0%) and 69th in 3 point defense (32.1%).
Pick: Going with the Under in this game. Both teams have been playing very low scoring games on neutral courts this year as the Blue Raiders' 5 neutral court games have averaged just 112.2 ppg, while 4 or UAB's neutral site games have put up 116 points or less in regulation. In this tournament MTSU's games have seen 123, 111 and 105 points being scored, while UAB's 2 have put up just 116 (regulation) and 105 points. Both teams are playing a slow pace right now and both have ad issues scoring in neutral site games with MTSU averaging just 54.6 ppg, while UAB has averaged just 58.2 ppg in those games. Championship games usually bring tightness from the offenses and better defense and that is what I'm looking for in this one. I see 115 or less being scored here.
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