As the college football season enters Week 4, the stakes are higher, and the competition is heating up. This week’s slate is filled with matchups that could shape conference races and playoff aspirations. Hosts Griffin Warner and Big East Ben from the College Football Podcast on the Pregame.com Podcast Network provide in-depth analysis, betting insights, and predictions for the top games, including Illinois vs Nebraska, USC vs Michigan, and Utah vs Oklahoma State. Their expertise offers a roadmap for bettors looking to gain an edge, with value plays, underdog picks, and over/under totals highlighted throughout.
Let's take a deep dive into the key takeaways, player insights, and betting strategies discussed on the show.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Nebraska’s Quarterback Hype (05:45)
At (05:45), Ben delves into Nebraska’s much-discussed quarterback, Dylan Riola, who has drawn comparisons to NFL superstar Patrick Mahomes. However, Ben urges caution, pointing out that while Riola’s playing style—his arm strength and mobility—may remind some of Mahomes, the hype could be premature. Nebraska’s recent win over Colorado has helped fuel this narrative, but Ben isn’t convinced the team has fully earned its newfound buzz. He also mentions that Nebraska has historically been inconsistent, especially when facing more seasoned opponents.
Griffin echoes these concerns, stressing that while Riola has shown potential, the team’s overall performance hasn’t been stable enough to warrant comparisons to elite quarterbacks. Nebraska has struggled to maintain offensive consistency, which might make their upcoming game against Illinois more competitive than expected.
Key Takeaway: While Dylan Riola shows promise, Nebraska’s hype is exaggerated. Bettors should be cautious when backing Nebraska at inflated odds, especially against strong defensive teams like Illinois.
Illinois vs Nebraska: Defensive Battle (07:05)
Illinois enters their matchup with Nebraska as an 8.5-point underdog (07:05), but both hosts believe this line provides strong value for bettors. Illinois has a stout defense, led by quarterback Luke Altmyer, who has been efficient under pressure. Ben argues that Illinois’ defense, combined with Altmyer’s game management skills, will make them competitive, even against a hyped Nebraska squad. Nebraska’s offensive line has struggled at times this season, which could lead to problems against Illinois’ aggressive defensive front.
Griffin adds that Illinois tends to keep games close, particularly in low-scoring matchups. Nebraska’s offense, which relies heavily on Riola’s ability to improvise, may find it tough to gain momentum against Illinois’ disciplined defense. As a result, the hosts are both confident in Illinois’ ability to cover the spread, with Griffin also noting the possibility of a low-scoring game.
Betting Insight: Illinois +8.5 is a solid pick for this week. With a strong defense and reliable quarterback, Illinois should be able to stay within a touchdown of Nebraska. Additionally, the game’s total may stay under 43 points due to both teams' defensive strengths.
PAC-12 Reshuffle and Its Impact (02:34)
Ben discusses the ongoing reshuffle within the PAC-12 (02:34), a conference that has seen several high-profile schools, including Oregon and Washington State, depart. To fill the void, the PAC-12 will add Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State, among others. However, Ben is skeptical that these additions will fully restore the conference’s status. He remarks that while these teams have solid programs, the PAC-12’s brand has taken a hit, and it will take time to rebuild.
There’s also a legal battle brewing over the PAC-12’s naming rights. Schools that have left the conference are fighting to retain control over the brand, despite having effectively abandoned it. Ben and Griffin agree that this situation creates uncertainty, but they both see potential for the new teams to make an impact, particularly Boise State, which has a strong football tradition.
Key Takeaway: The reshuffling of the PAC-12 will have long-term implications for college football. While the new teams may not immediately fill the void left by departing powerhouses, they offer potential for the future.
USC at Michigan: A Low-Scoring Contest (09:45)
Next, the hosts turn to the marquee matchup between USC and Michigan (09:45). Despite being the road team, USC is a 6-point favorite, but both Griffin and Ben expect this to be a low-scoring game. Michigan, which has struggled offensively this season, will be making a switch at quarterback, inserting Alex Orji, a five-star dual-threat prospect. However, Orji’s inexperience could be a liability against a USC defense that, while not elite, is opportunistic and can capitalize on turnovers.
Griffin is particularly concerned about Michigan’s ability to sustain drives against USC’s fast-paced offense. While Michigan’s defense has been solid, their offense has not lived up to expectations. Orji’s mobility might give Michigan an edge in certain situations, but he is prone to mistakes, which could lead to a conservative game plan focused on controlling the clock and avoiding big plays. Both hosts agree that betting the under 46.5 points is a smart play, as Michigan’s defense should keep the game close, while their offense likely won’t generate enough scoring to hit the over.
Betting Insight: The under 46.5 total is a strong bet, with both teams relying heavily on defense and Michigan’s offense still finding its footing with a new quarterback.
Utah at Oklahoma State: Cam Rising Returns (13:30)
One of the most anticipated matchups of Week 4 is Utah vs Oklahoma State (13:30). Utah, a consistent force under head coach Kyle Whittingham, is favored by 2.5 points on the road, and the return of star quarterback Cam Rising is expected to bolster the Utes’ chances. Rising missed time due to injury, but his return comes at a crucial point in the season as Utah looks to solidify its position as a top team in the PAC-12.
Ben praises Rising’s leadership and poise, noting that he has the ability to control the pace of the game, limit turnovers, and execute Utah’s offensive game plan efficiently. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, barely scraping by in a win against Arkansas last week. Ben criticizes Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy, questioning how he has maintained his position despite the team’s struggles.
Griffin also points out that this game features two veteran quarterbacks, with Alan Bowman leading Oklahoma State. However, Bowman’s play has been erratic, and he has struggled against tougher defenses. Utah’s defense, which has been a hallmark of Whittingham’s teams, will be critical in containing Bowman and forcing Oklahoma State into mistakes.
Betting Insight: Utah -2.5 is a solid play. With Rising’s return and Utah’s consistent defense, they are well-positioned to win on the road.
Best Bets for Week 4
1. Illinois +8.5 vs Nebraska
Ben and Griffin both back Illinois to cover the spread in this matchup. Illinois’ defense is strong enough to keep the game close, and Nebraska’s offense has shown vulnerabilities that Illinois can exploit. With Nebraska’s inflated hype, Illinois is the value play here.
Key Factor: Illinois’ ability to control the tempo and limit Nebraska’s offense with a disciplined defensive effort.
2. USC at Michigan: Under 46.5
Both hosts are confident in the under for this game, given Michigan’s offensive struggles and USC’s reliance on their defense to make key stops. Michigan’s new quarterback, Alex Orji, may need time to adjust, and USC’s defense will likely force Michigan to keep the game conservative.
Key Factor: Michigan’s defense is capable of keeping USC’s offense in check, but their offense may not be able to generate enough points to push the total over.
3. Utah -2.5 at Oklahoma State
Cam Rising’s return gives Utah a significant edge in this matchup. Rising is a seasoned leader who can manage the game effectively, and Utah’s defense is more than capable of handling Oklahoma State’s inconsistent offense.
Key Factor: Rising’s leadership and Utah’s strong defense give them the tools to cover the spread on the road.
Additional Insights and Analysis
Tennessee’s Dominance (17:26)
Tennessee comes into Week 4 as a 7-point favorite against Oklahoma, and Ben believes they have the potential to dominate. Elias Sova, Tennessee’s star quarterback, has been exceptional, leading a high-powered offense that has overwhelmed opponents. Ben is confident in Tennessee’s ability to cover the spread, especially with Oklahoma struggling to find consistency on both sides of the ball.
Griffin, however, raises concerns about Oklahoma’s defense, which could keep the game closer than expected. While Tennessee’s offense is explosive, Griffin argues that Oklahoma’s defense has the talent to slow them down, making the under 57.5 points an appealing option for bettors looking for a low-scoring outcome.
Conclusion
Week 4 of college football offers several intriguing matchups and betting opportunities. Illinois’s strong defense and Nebraska’s overhyped offense make Illinois +8.5 a solid play, while Michigan vs USC presents a good opportunity to bet the under, given both teams’ reliance on defense. Utah, with Cam Rising back in the lineup, is well-positioned to cover against Oklahoma State, and Tennessee’s offensive firepower makes them a strong favorite against Oklahoma, though the under may also be a good bet.
With expert analysis from Griffin Warner and Big East Ben, bettors can navigate Week 4 with confidence, identifying value plays and avoiding the traps of media hype.