Saturday college football and we will see the Texas State Bobcats take on the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. The game has a start time of 4:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPNews. Current Vegas odds have the Fighting Illini listed as 13 point favorites, while the total is set at 62.
Analysis: The Texas State Bobcats started the year with a 65-0 win over FCS foe Arkansas Pine Bluff, but last week they took it on the chin in a 35-21 home loss to the Naval Academy. The game was actually closer than the final score, as the Bobcats were outgained by just 27 yards in the game. This is after they outgained Ark Pine Bluff by 482 yards in their opening win. In the loss to Navy, the Bobcats were very balanced on offense as they rolled up 211 yards on the ground and 231 yards through the air. Tyler Jones has been solid under center, hitting 73.8% of his passes for 509 yards with 5 TDs and 1 INT, while Robert Lowe has led the ground attack this year with 242 yards and 2 TDs this far this year. The Bobcats are ranked 11th in the nation in total offense (569.5 ypg), 15th in rushing (294.5 ypg) and 24th in scoring (43 ppg), while on defense they rank 42nd overall (342 ypg) 5th vs the pass (102.5 ypg) and 25th in points allowed (17.5 ppg).
Tim Beckman has gone from 2 to 4 wins in his first two years guiding the Illinois Fighting Illini and if that trend continues this year, then Illinois may just break their 2 year bowl drought. 14 starters and 48 lettermen back give them a real shot at doing so. The Illini are off to a good start as they are 2-1 on the year with wins over Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, while their lone loss was last week at Washington. The Illini were never really in the game vs Washington as they fell behind 21-3 at the end of the first quarter and then 35-5 with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. Wes Lunt, a transfer from Oklahoma State, has been a pleasant surprise at QB for the Illini as he has thrown for 971 yards with 9 TDs and just 2 INTs on the year so far. He has helped the Illini to the 15 ranked passing offense in the nation, while they also rank 74th in scoring (29.7 ppg). The defense has not been so god for this team as they rank 87th in yards allowed (414.7 ypg) and 96th in points allowed (31.7 ppg)
Pick: I like the Bobcats in this one. Illinois is an improved team but this Bobcat team is well coached and can play with the mid-level FBS teams. The Illini do have a solid offense, especially with Wes Lunt at QB, but their defense is still bad and I feel that will allow the Bobcats to keep this one close. Texas State has put up 43 ppg so far this year and this offense was expected to be explosive as they have 8 starters back from last year’s team. The defense only has 4 starters back but they have recruited well on that side of the ball and should be better than last year’s group. The Illinois defense is not very good as they come in allowing 414 ypg and 31.7 ppg and will have a tough time stopping the Bobcat offense in this one. The Illini are 1-9 ATS at home after allowing 35 points in their last game and they are in a tough sandwich spot here, coming off a road game vs Washington and they have a road game vs Nebraska on deck. For the Bobcats, we note that HC Franchione is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 games as a DD non-conference dog. Illinois may win, but by no more than a TD.
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